The wild stat that shows who Man Utd’s most important player is – & it’s not Bruno Fernandes | OneFootball

Manchester United‘s campaign to qualify for the Champions League looks like it depends on Casemiro – with a stark difference between their record with and without him on the pitch.

The 33-year-old will depart Old Trafford when his contract expires at the end of the season and signing an adequate replacement will be the board’s biggest priority this summer, given how important he’s been this season.

Casemiro has made himself absolutely integral to United’s hopes of a successful 2025-26 campaign – not bad for a player who was declared ready to be put out to pasture by Jamie Carragher two years ago.

“I will carry Manchester United with me throughout my entire life,” the Brazilian told Manchester United’s official website.

“From the first day that I walked out at this beautiful stadium, I felt the passion of Old Trafford and the love that I now share with our supporters for this special club.

“It is not time to say goodbye; there are many more memories to create during the next four months.”

There’s an incredibly stark difference between United’s record with and without Casemiro this season.

Manchester United have lost all five of the matches that he has not started this season. That includes both domestic cup eliminations.

He was an unused substitute and watched on from the bench in the humiliating penalty shootout defeat they suffered away to Grimsby Town in the League Cup back in September.

In the FA Cup third round tie at home to Brighton, caretaker coach Darren Fletcher opted for a double pivot of Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte.

Casemiro was eventually introduced from the bench in the 80th minute, by which point United were two goals, while he was on the pitch for Benjamin Sesko’s late consolation goal.

In the Premier League, the Red Devils have lost the two matches that Casemiro has been unavailable for – he was suspended for the 3-1 defeat to Brentford in September and the 2-1 loss away to Aston Villa in December.

The only other league game that Casemiro didn’t start was September’s Manchester derby. He was eventually introduced late on, but it was damage limitation after City were already three goals ahead.

In total, if you include penalties against Grimsby (technically most stats nerds count these as draws), United have lost seven matches in all competitions this season. Five of them are the games that Casemiro didn’t start.

Of the two defeats that Casemiro started, both were narrow 1-0 defeats on home soil – to Arsenal on the opening weekend, and to Everton in November. Both of those games they registered more xG than the opposition, comfortably so (1.97xG to 0.20) in the latter.

And United’s latest victory over Fulham points to something of a recurring theme this season – their tendency to lose control after the veteran midfielder is withdrawn.

Casemiro scored the first and assisted the second against the Cottagers and appeared to be cruising with a two-goal lead when he was substituted off in the 75th minute.

It was after that point that the visitors got back into it, with Raul Jimenez converting a penalty before Kevin’s long-range rocket levelled things up in injury-time. Benjamin Sesko spared the hosts’ blushes, but the score without Casemiro on the pitch was 2-1 to Fulham.

The last 20 minutes against Fulham are a microcosm of United’s season so far. They’ve conceded 40 goals in all competitions this season. A massive 22 (55%) have been scored when Casemiro hasn’t been on the pitch. That’s a gigantic proportion given he’s started the vast majority of their games.

The aggregate score when Casemiro has not on the pitch this season is 13-22. The aggregate score when Casemiro has been on the pitch is 34-18.

It will be nigh-on impossible for Casemiro to depart Manchester United with a trophy at the end of this season, but he appears a man on a mission to leave on a high, with the club back in a healthy state and qualified for the Champions League.

Manchester United’s bid to finish in the top five looks as though it rests on Casemiro’s shoulders.

Keep him fit and available, and they should be able to see it through.