World Cup 2026: What Italy need to qualify, rules and fixtures | OneFootball

After the thrilling victory against Israel, Gennaro Gattuso’s Italy is just three points behind group leader Norway and can still dream of direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

World Cup 2026, What Does Italy Need to Qualify? Rules, Scenarios, and Schedule

But what does it really take to secure a spot? And what happens in case of a second-place finish? Here’s a complete guide.

How Italy Can Qualify for the 2026 World Cup

The UEFA qualifiers offer a total of 16 spots. Each group (12 in total, with four or five teams) guarantees direct qualification only to the group winner.

The other four spots will be decided through playoffs, which will include:

The 12 second-placed teams from the groups

The 4 best Nations League teams not already qualified

How the Playoffs Work

The playoffs feature four paths (A, B, C, and D) with single-leg semifinals and finals. The seeded teams (the eight best runners-up) will play the semifinal at home, while the others will have to play away.

Example: in 2022, Italy was a seeded team and played the semifinal at home against North Macedonia, but was eliminated.

The Situation in the Azzurri’s Group

Standings after the win against Israel:

Norway: 12 points (goal difference +11)

Italy: 9 points (goal difference +5)

Israel: 9 points (+4)

Estonia: 3 points (-8)

Moldova: 0 points (-12)

Italy is currently second, but with three matches left to play (Estonia, Israel, and Norway).

What Happens in Case of a Tie

If Italy finishes level on points with Norway, the order will be determined by the following criteria:

Overall goal difference

Goals scored in the group

Points in head-to-head matches

Goal difference in head-to-head matches

Goals scored in head-to-head matches

Away goals scored in head-to-head matches

Fair play (yellow/red cards)

FIFA draw

What Italy Needs to Do

Win the last three matches: Estonia (October 11), Israel (October 14), and Norway (November 16 at San Siro).

Improve their goal difference, currently +5 compared to Norway’s +11.

Take advantage of any missteps by the Scandinavians: if they don’t take maximum points against Israel and Estonia, Italy will have a chance to qualify even with two wins.

When Is Italy–Norway Played?

Here is the schedule for the final matchdays:

October 11, 2025: Norway–Israel (18:00)

October 11, 2025: Estonia–Italy (20:45)

October 14, 2025: Italy–Israel (20:45)

November 13, 2025: Norway–Estonia (18:00)

November 13, 2025: Moldova–Italy (20:45)

November 16, 2025: Italy–Norway (20:45)

The possible playoffs will be played in March 2026 (semifinals on the 26th, finals on the 31st).

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.