Arsenal v Leeds: Back a Gunners home win at 20/21 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mike Norman has provided two out of two winning naps to start the new Premier League season and our man is back with a preview of Arsenal v Leeds on Saturday evening...

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Arsenal v LeedsSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Winning starts for both teams

Both Arsenal and Leeds recorded 1-0 wins on the opening weekend of the season; the Gunners' victory courtesy of a largely underwhelming performance at Old Trafford, while the Whites thoroughly deserved their win over Everton despite their winning penalty being awarded in controversial fashion.

This is a tough test for both. For Leeds, it's a first away game at a club expected to challenge for the title and it's likely to provide plenty of answers to those questioning their ability to stay above the relegation zone this season.

For Arsenal, it's a game they're thoroughly expected to win and that in itself brings added pressure. Liverpool last season and Man City in the three previous seasons won all 12 games between them on home soil to newly-promoted clubs. Title winners rarely drop points to the new boys.

Gunners can win a low-scoring game

Considering that in previous seasons some title contenders were huge odds-on to beat a newly-promoted club on home soil - if memory serves I believe Liverpool were 1/12 at home to Southampton last term - then a price of 2/9 for Arsenal to beat Leeds doesn't seem too short.

True, the Gunners didn't impress in beating Manchester United but that's a game that is never going to be easy as your opening game of the season, and Mikel Arteta's men defended well to keep a clean sheet despite United posing plenty of attacking threat.

Leeds did impress against Everton however, especially in the first half, but despite registering 21 shots just two of those - excluding the penalty - were on target and they recorded an xG from open play of less than 1.0. However, they defended superbly and restricted the Toffees to an xG from open play of just 0.06.

So my gut feeling for this game is that Arsenal will very likely get the win, but they won't win big. I envisage Daniel Farke's men defending well and keeping it tight without posing too much threat of their own. Seven of Arsenal's last eight wins on home soil in the Premier League last season witnessed three goals or fewer and that's how I'm going to play this game.

Backing Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals pays out at 20/21 and that will be my bet of the game. For the bet to land then we need a Gunners win by a scoreline of either 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-0.

Saka the obvious Safe Sub pick

Bukayo Saka didn't have the best game of his Arsenal career against Manchester United at the weekend but we know he's a player of immense ability and will relish his chances of testing Leeds' new left-back Gabriel Gudmundsson on Saturday.

The Gunners' star man can be backed at 9/2 to score first or at 11/8 to score anytime. In terms of assists he's 17/10 to register at least one, or if you're looking for an odds-on pick in a Bet Builder perhaps then Saka can be backed at 4/6 to score or assist.

Safe Sub product.

Now read Max Liu's 10 stats-based bets using Opta data.

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Back Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 20/21

Mike's 2025/26 Profit/Loss:

Staked: 5ptsReturned: 9.55ptsP/L: +4.55pts