Barcelona v Newcastle: Barca's risky line makes Toon shot count a value bet at 11/8 | OneFootball

Click here for Barcelona v Newcastle oddsWednesday 17:45, live on TNT Sports

Can Newcastle upset the odds in Catalonia?

The Betfair Exchange market is telling a story here and it's a pretty emphatic one.

Despite the tie being finely poised at 1-1 after the first leg on Tyneside, Barcelona are trading as heavy 1.33 favourites to qualify with Newcastle way out at 3.85. On the face of it, that looks a little punchy for a tie that is technically level and a bet on the Toon to qualify was originally on my radar, but once you start digging into the numbers behind Barcelona at home, it becomes clear why traders aren't rushing to take them on.

The Catalans have turned home games into an exhibition of attacking football of late, winning their last 17 while averaging a whopping 3.4 goals per match in that run. When they get rolling, they tend to blow teams away early and ask questions most sides simply can't answer.

History against English opposition also leans heavily in their favour. Barcelona have lost just two of their 37 European home matches against clubs from England (W22 D13) and arrive into this one unbeaten in the last 14 of those (W9 D5). That's the sort of long-term trend that has an affect of the way their qualification price is formulated.

UEFA Champions League: Barcelona v Newcastle (To Qualify)

Wednesday 18 March, 5.45pm

So Newcastle arrive in Catalonia with the tie alive but the odds firmly stacked against them and if they're going to sensationally flip this script, they'll have to do something very few English sides have managed to do in this stadium.

Are Eddie Howe's team capable of that level of performance?

I've got my doubts based on their recent record playing away against the big three in the Premier League. Manchester City, Arsenal and on their day Liverpool are a good comparison to facing Barcelona in terms of where the market rates each team.

And Howe's men have lost their last six away games to those three Premier League heavyweights with the aggregate score reading 16-3.

Tactically, Newcastle are set up to cause Barcelona's lots of problems with the way they get the ball forward quickly and possess the runners in behind to expose the famous Barca high offside line.

But there are smarter ways to play pro-Newcastle angles than just to simply back them in the outright.

Forget the upset, Newcastle shots market is the play

Trying to outscore Barcelona over 90 minutes in their own backyard is a monumental task. That's why the smarter angle might be to back a by-product of Newcastle's approach rather than the outright dream of qualification.

Barcelona's numbers at home are frightening but their style always leaves the door slightly ajar. The aggressive high line is non-negotiable and it invites foot races in behind - exactly the type of scenario Newcastle can manufacture with the pace of Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga stretching the pitch.

We saw it in the first leg too. Newcastle repeatedly got in behind and managed four shots on target, which lines up neatly with what Barcelona tend to concede anyway - they're allowing around four on target per game this season. The opportunities will be there again.

Big chances tend to arrive for Newcastle, but converting them is another matter entirely - something Newcastle fans were reminded of in that 1-1 draw.

That's why the play here is volume rather than outcome.

With Barcelona likely dominating the ball and Newcastle almost certainly forced to chase the game at some point with their Champions League hopes on the line, the shot count should rack up through transitions and counter attacks.

That's why the 11/8 on offer for Newcastle to have five or more shots on target rates as a fantastic bet to attack.

If the game state unfolds as expected, the chances should come. Whether they take them is another question entirely. But for this bet, they don't have to.

Back Gordon in 6/1 Bet Builder

We are still running the Bet £10 Get £10 offer on Bet Builders, and a way to utilse this offer is to focus on Newcastle's shots lines to chase a nice return. If you back both Newcastle to have six or more shots on target and Anthony Gordon to post two or more shots on target, you bring out a 6/1 Bet Builder to cheer on.

Across his last 13 games, Gordon is actually averaging more than two shots on target per game with his per 90 average coming in at 2.1, including hitting the two or more line against Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool - he saves his best shots output for the better teams.