The Independent
·17 marzo 2026
Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction: Champions League betting tips & odds

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Yahoo sportsThe Independent
·17 marzo 2026

Chelsea host Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie at Stamford Bridge this evening (8pm, TNT Sports).
Liam Rosenior’s side are faced with a supremely difficult task as they look to overturn a three-goal deficit against the holders, with a late collapse allowing PSG to snatch a 5-2 win in the first leg almost a week ago.
However, the Blues will take plenty of encouragement from certain aspects of their performance at the Parc des Princes, even if their confidence might have taken a hit with the loss to Newcastle at the weekend.
In fact, betting sites have priced the hosts as favourites in the second leg at 21/20 to win, though they are priced at 9/1 to make it through to the quarter-finals.
But while PSG are offered at 2/1 to win at the Bridge, odds of 1/16 for the holders to make it through show just how difficult Chelsea’s task will be this evening.
The first leg was an enthralling contest in the French capital, with both sides demonstrating plenty of attacking verve alongside the occasional defensive lapse.
And while the 5-2 win puts PSG in an enviable position, that scoreline does not reflect the reality of the first leg, with Chelsea playing well and even dominating parts of the match, both when down and when drawing.
However, the same problems that have plagued the Blues at times this season were again apparent at the Parc des Princes, with a dramatic collapse seeing them concede three times in around 20 minutes to return to London shellshocked.
While Rosenior’s side are capable of producing lovely attacking football, a mix of individual mistakes and lapses in concentration once again saw them lose a game, and a side as talented as PSG needed no invitation to strike when the moment presented itself.
Nevertheless, Chelsea showed that they can compete with the holders on their own turf, and can justify their tag as favourites on football betting sites.
The performance from both sides in the first leg showed that it is likely both will score at Stamford Bridge, especially when you consider that PSG only have two clean sheets in their last five, while Chelsea have none.
Add in the fact that PSG do not even need to win this match in order to go through, and we think Chelsea will win this time round. However, we think both teams will score in midweek, and the Blues won’t have enough to turn the tie around.
PSG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia did not start the first leg in Paris but he did end up having the deciding say, scoring twice late on to perhaps put the tie out of Chelsea’s reach.
The Georgian winger scored a superb solo effort to make it 4-2 late on before wrapping up the first leg with a fortunate brace with almost the last kick of the game, bundling past Jorgensen to leave Chelsea with a mountain to climb at Stamford Bridge.
While that result means PSG have an obvious advantage ahead of the second leg, they could well benefit from the fact Chelsea have to chase the game from the first whistle, with the match potentially opening up from the get-go.
This will certainly suit PSG’s attackers, as was the case when Dembele and Barcola scored last time out. To that end, whether Kvaratskhelia is in the starting XI or not, he should get the space and the opportunities to add to his goal tally, whether from the kick-off or when coming on against tired legs.
The 25-year-old has four goals and two assists over his last five Champions League games despite only starting two of them, and we’re backing him to add to those tallies at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea: For the Blues, Filip Jorgensen will need to be assessed after missing the loss to Newcastle, Estevao could make their returns to the squad and Pedro Neto is free to play after escaping a ban for his actions in the first leg. However, this match will come too soon for Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, while Levi Colwill remains sidelined until the end of the season.
PSG: For the holders, only Fabian Ruiz and Quentin Ndjantou will be absent, with the French champions having been given a rest week in Ligue 1.
Chelsea XI: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro.
PSG XI: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola.
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