Corinthians' relegation odds drop after Mirassol win, says study

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Central do Timão

·6 ottobre 2025

Corinthians' relegation odds drop after Mirassol win, says study

By Daniel Keppler / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians breathed a sigh of relief after their 3 x 0 victory over Mirassol, in a match played this Saturday, 4, at Neo Química Arena for the 27th round of the Brazilian Championship. With the result, the club saw its chances of relegation to the 2026 Serie B drastically reduced, according to calculations by the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

The study indicates that the Alvinegro now has a 5.7% probability of relegation at the end of the Brazilian Championship, a significant reduction compared to the previous scenario, when the risk was 16.5%. The team dropped to ninth place among the most threatened — now behind Sport, Juventude, Vitória, Fortaleza, Santos, Atlético, Grêmio, and Internacional.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

In addition to lowering the risk of relegation, Timão expanded its possibilities of competing in a continental tournament in 2026. According to UFMG, Corinthians now has a 51.9% chance of competing in the next season's Copa Sul-Americana, a much higher rate than before, when it was 35.4%. The probability of competing in the Copa Libertadores remains small, although it has improved, going from 0.95% to 2.9%.

With the victory over Mirassol, Corinthians reached 33 points in the Brasileirão, occupying the 12th position in the table with eight victories, nine draws, and ten losses, in addition to 29 goals scored and 32 conceded. The current distance to the G6 is ten points, and in relation to the Z4, the Alvinegro advantage is eight points.

Corinthians' next commitment, for the 28th round of the competition, will be away against Santos, at Vila Belmiro, on the 15th at 9:30 pm (Brasília time).

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