Corinthians safe from drop, eyes set on Libertadores spot

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Central do Timão

·3 novembre 2025

Corinthians safe from drop, eyes set on Libertadores spot

By Daniel Keppler / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians changed the mood in the championship after defeating Grêmio at home in the 31st round of the Brasileirão. As a result, the chances of relegation to Série B in 2026 have dropped again, getting closer to finally being eliminated, according to updated calculations from the Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

According to the survey, Alvinegro now has only a 0.035% probability of relegation at the end of the Brasileirão, a decrease compared to the previous scenario, when, after defeating Vitória away from home, the risk had already dropped to 0.9%. With this, the team has become the 11th most threatened in the competition.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

In addition to an even greater relief in the risk of relegation, Corinthians also saw its chances of playing in a continental tournament in 2026 increase. Dorival Júnior's team now has an 80.9% chance of playing in next season's Copa Sudamericana (previously it was 70.1%). Meanwhile, the probability of playing in the Copa Libertadores remains remote, but has seen a significant increase from 3% to 14.7%.

With the victory over Grêmio, Corinthians increased its points gap from the relegation zone, reaching 42 points – 11 more than Vitória, which opens the Z4 with 31 points. In tenth place, the People’s Team will now face Red Bull Bragantino away in the 32nd round to maintain their positive streak and eliminate the risk of relegation in the competition.

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