Expert reveals the truth behind Liverpool’s injury struggles this season | OneFootball

Liverpool Analysis: Fitness Struggles Expose Structural Shift

In the latest episode of Stat Me Up on Anfield Index, Phil Barter and Simon Brundish delivered a forensic breakdown of why Liverpool’s fitness profile this season looks markedly different from last year. The conversation moved beyond bad luck and into ideology, specifically how training philosophy may be shaping availability.

The discussion matters because Liverpool’s injury list has included Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, Joe Gomez, Wataru Endo and Alexander Isak all struggling with injuries this season.

Tactical Periodisation and Reduced Training Intensity

Brundish explained that Arne Slot’s methodology aligns with tactical periodisation. “The hardest thing they do is the game,” he said. Unlike the previous regime, where training loads could exceed match intensity, the current structure matches training to game demands.

Under the prior approach, “for every week there will be that 100k and then in training week would be 200k leading into that 100k match day”. Now, “Slot matches one for one”.

The theory is freshness. “Swap intensity of training for supposed freshness so that you could do your most explosive actions on game day.”

However, there is a consequence. “Progressive overload… can only occur from match days.” In simple terms, players build fitness primarily through matches rather than heavy midweek sessions.

Reinjury Risk and Squad Fragility

Where this becomes problematic is during disrupted seasons.

“The premise of this is ruined if we have injuries,” Brundish warned. If players miss matches, there is no equivalent training stimulus to rebuild match fitness. “How do they get their fitness up to match their fitness because the most intense day is matches and they haven’t played any?”

This creates a cycle. Returning players face heightened risk. “Reinjury is the biggest issue,” he said. “They haven’t built a tolerance to the high intensity stuff… they’re really high risk to breaking again.”

Jeremie Frimpong’s situation was used as a case study. After a major hamstring tear, Brundish explained that muscle fibres take “about nine months to fully lay down and embed in the right shape”. Even when a player looks healed, vulnerability remains.

“It’s a risk,” he concluded plainly.

Photo: IMAGO

Control Versus Chaos in Match Intensity

Last season provided contrast. “The beauty of tactical periodisation is when you have a bunch of players with a low injury history… that you can create the perfect environment that replicates itself.”

Liverpool controlled games and, crucially, controlled intensity. “Last season, we controlled the intensity of nearly the whole season,” Brundish said. This season, “we’ve confused control with possession… we haven’t had control this season.”

Chasing games increases acceleration and deceleration, the very actions most associated with muscle injuries. “That’s why we’re breaking,” he stated.

Youth Recovery and Long Term Planning

The conversation turned to younger players such as Giovanni Leoni. A serious ACL injury, Brundish explained, typically requires nine months for return to play, followed by further time to regain neurological sharpness.

“It takes an equal amount of time of a player being out after the injury to recover back to the levels they were at before,” he said. A year out can mean a year before full physical confidence returns.

Joe Gomez’s injury history was also referenced through probability modelling. The likelihood of Gomez and Konate being available together for every game last season was “0.013%.”

Availability is not guaranteed simply because players are technically fit.

Liverpool’s Fitness Dilemma

The analysis was not alarmist, but it was sobering. Slot’s system can work, particularly with a stable, low injury squad. But disruption undermines the model.

Returning players must accumulate match load to rebuild resilience, yet match load itself increases risk. It is a delicate balance.

Liverpool’s fitness struggles this season are not purely misfortune. They are the intersection of ideology, game state, reinjury risk and squad depth.

As Brundish summarised when discussing Frimpong’s comeback prospects, “we’re going to need a lot of luck.”

And at the highest level, relying on luck is rarely a sustainable strategy.