OPTA updated projections on Newcastle United chances in Champions League after Benfica win | OneFootball

How will Newcastle United end up in the Champions League this 2025/26 season?

Three matches played already.

The 2-1 defeat to Barcelona at St James’ Park.

Followed by the 4-0 away win against Union S-G.

Then last night back at St James’ Park, an excellent 3-0 victory over Benfica.

Five more league ones to go, next up Bilbao at home in two weeks time.

Each of the 36 clubs playing four games away and four at home.

Opta have now done their updated Champions League 2025-26 Projections for Newcastle United and the other 35 clubs, following Tuesday night’s matches.

These are the updated predictions via Opta – 22 October 2025:

Predicted number of points after the eight league matches – 14.04 points from a possible 24.

Percentage chance of ending up very top of league stage after the eight games – A 0.94% possibility of doing so.

Percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs – A 60.09% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of reaching the quarter-finals – A 40.94% chance of getting to the last eight.

Percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals – A 18.55% chance of getting to the last four.

Percentage chance of reaching the final – A 7.97% chance of getting to the last two.

Percentage chance of winning the Champions League – A 3.50% chance of winning the whole thing! (Opta rating Newcastle United as the tenth most likely winners…)

Newcastle 3 Benfica 0 – Tuesday 21 October 2025 8pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Gordon 32, Barnes 70,83

Benfica:

Possession was Newcastle 52% Benfica 48%

Total shots were Newcastle 19 Benfica 7

Shots on target were Newcastle 10 Benfica 2

Corners were Newcastle 12 Benfica 8

Touches in the box Newcastle 38 Benfica 12

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno (Willock 90), Ramsey (Joelinton 63), Miley, Gordon (Elanga 85), Woltemade (Osula 85), Jacob Murphy (Barnes 63)

Unused subs:

Thompson, Ramsdale, Schar, Tonali, Krafth, Alex Murphy