Tottenham, Leeds, Nott’m Forest, West Ham relegation chances now clear thanks to point-by-point survival guide | OneFootball

Tottenham, Leeds, Nott’m Forest, West Ham relegation chances now clear thanks to point-by-point survival guide | OneFootball

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·13 aprile 2026

Tottenham, Leeds, Nott’m Forest, West Ham relegation chances now clear thanks to point-by-point survival guide

Immagine dell'articolo:Tottenham, Leeds, Nott’m Forest, West Ham relegation chances now clear thanks to point-by-point survival guide

Leeds go into a crucial clash away to arch rivals Manchester United on Monday evening knowing survival is very much in their hands and with a delve into the history books showing exactly what they, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur must all do to avoid relegation.

The fight to stay in the Premier League looks poised to go down to the wire after another weekend of twists and turns in the top flight. While Wolves and Burnley now looked doomed to be playing Championship football next season, it remains uncertain which of four sides will join them in the second tier.


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Sitting on 33 points and three clear of the drop zone, Leeds United head to Old Trafford on Monday evening in the best shape of all four sides.

A win could take Daniel Farke’s six clear of the drop, and while a tall order against Michael Carrick’s in-form side, Leeds take on basement boys Wolves on Saturday, meaning they now play twice before Spurs – the side currently sat 18th – kick a ball again.

Win both, and Leeds will be nine clear with five games remaining, putting Premier League survival very much in their hands.

West Ham also did their hopes the power of good with a thumping 4-0 win over Wolves, to move out of the drop zone, while Nottingham Forest picked up a battling point at home to Aston Villa.

Now, a dive into the history books shows exactly what each club’s chances of survival are and depending on the points tally they finish on.

33 points: Clubs that finish on 33 points for the season would have just a 13.33% chance of survival, with that tally enough to avoid the drop in just four of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

34 points: Clubs that finish on 34 points have just a 30% chance of survival, with that tally enough to avoid the drop in nine of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

35 points: A 35-point haul for the season historically gives sides a 53.33% of survival, with that tally enough in 16 of the last 30 seasons.

36 points: That tally has been enough in 18 of 30 Premier League seasons, giving sides a 60% chance of survival.

37 points: A 37-point haul gives sides a 76.66% of survival, with that tally being enough in 23 of 30 Premier League seasons.

38 points: That tally delivers a 80% chance of survival, having been enough to stay afloat in 24 of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

39 points: A tally that has delivered survival in 26 of 30 Premier League seasons, giving clubs reaching that mark a 86.67% chance of staying up.

40 points: Heralded as the magical mark for good reason, teams who reach 40 points ensure a 90% chance of survival, with that tally being enough in 27 of the last 30 seasons.

41-42 points: Finishing with either gives teams a 96.67% chance of staying up. That has secured safety in 29 of 30 seasons.

43 points-plus: No team has ever been relegated after amassing 43 points or more, giving teams, historically, a 100% chance of survival.

Carragher turns on Tottenham as O’Hara slams five shocking stars

Meanwhile, a fuming Jamie O’Hara has now accepted Spurs will probably go down, fearing new manager Roberto De Zerbi is not a miracle worker and claiming that the team are carrying several “shocking” stars and naming five of them who he rates as simply not good enough.

At the same time, Jamie Carragher has delivered a relegation verdict on Spurs that will leave their supporters feeling sick as a first demotion from the top flight since 1977 looms large.

Elsewhere, Leeds and Spurs are both battling to sign the same player from Manchester City this summer, with a new report backing up what TEAMtalk were saying back in February about the £30m-rated star.

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