What Do Chelsea Need on the Final Day of the Season to Qualify for the Champions League? | OneFootball

Chelsea still have a European final to play this season but they would arguably trade Conference League glory for victory this weekend.

The Blues are yet to confirm their place in the Premier League’s top five heading into the final day of the season, with Champions League qualification yet to be secured as a result. After nine months of action, it all comes down to Sunday’s duel with Nottingham Forest.

It’s a daunting prospect for Enzo Maresca and his players, especially given the quality of their final day opposition, but they are ever so close to returning to Europe’s premier competition.

Here’s what Chelsea need at the City Ground to achieve their ambitions.

What Do Chelsea Need for Champions League Qualification?

Enzo Maresca needs a big performance at the City Ground this Sunday. / IMAGO / Sportimage

The fabled Opta supercomputer has given Chelsea healthy odds of reaching the Champions League but finishing inside the top five won’t be straightforward. The Blues are currently fifth in the standings and sit on 66 points: two behind third-placed Manchester City, level with Newcastle United and Aston Villa, and one ahead of upcoming foes Forest.

On paper, their assignment is simple. Victory against the Tricky Trees will confirm Champions League qualification given their goal difference is far superior to Villa’s. Providing Unai Emery’s side don’t secure a record Premier League win—they currently have +9 goal difference compared to Chelsea’s +20—the Blues will be assured of their place in the top five if they can triumph at the City Ground.

A draw would leave them in a tricky position and relying on results elsewhere. They would then require Villa to lose or draw away at Manchester United or Newcastle to taste defeat at home to Everton.

Losing to Forest would be catastrophic. They would be leapfrogged by the Midlands side and would need Villa to lose away at Manchester United and Newcastle to be defeated by three or more to still earn a Champions League spot.

What’s the Highest and Lowest Chelsea Can Finish?

Should their dream scenario play out this weekend, Chelsea could finish as high as third in the table. However, that remains unlikely given they would need Man City to lose and Newcastle to drop points. Supporters won’t be holding their breath for that eventuality.

Chelsea’s lowest potential finish is seventh, which would see them drop into the Conference League qualification spots. For this to happen they would need to be beaten by Forest and Villa to draw or win against Man Utd.

However, if Chelsea do finish seventh and then win the Conference League final against Real Betis at the end of the season, they would qualify for the Europa League.

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