Wimbledon v Walsall Playoff Final Tips: Back Dons defence to rule again on Monday | OneFootball

Wembley awaits Wimbledon and Walsall on Monday

Alan Dudman previews the League Two Playoff Final on Monday between Wimbledon and Walsall and he has three tips in what potentially could be a low-scoring match...

Match Odds: Wimbledon 13/8, Walsall 19/10, the draw 19/10

AFC Wimbledon remain unbeaten across their five EFL playoff games (W4 D1) and done a defensive number on Notts County over the two legs in their semi-final. While the Magpies were missing key attackers at Plough Lane, Johnnie Jackson played it like the Dons have always played it - a clean sheet.

Their playoff record includes a 2-0 victory against Plymouth Argyle in their only prior final appearance in May 2016 when they were last promoted from League Two.

This will be the third time that Walsall have played in an EFL play-off final, winning each of their prior clashes against Bristol City in a replay in May 1988 (4-0) and against Reading in May 2001 (3-2) and they had to weather a good offensive team in Chesterfield over two legs, although two goals in the return game at the Bescot on 94 and 95 minutes were savage in terms of the Draw/Draw and BTTS bets.

The Dons deserve favouritism here, and Walsall, for all they started off in blistering fashion, tailed off badly and endured a horror run without a win in 13 games prior to their final match of the regular season which saw them break the sequence.

Wimbledon do not give much away and with Walsall's penchant for a draw (they netted from the 25th of January), I think the play here is to back the draw at 19/10.

There wasn't much between the pair in the two fixtures during the regular season with Nathan Lowe scoring the winner in a 0-1 at Plough Lane and late goals in a 1-1 was the result at the Bescot at the end of March. Sadly, Lowe's exit in January proved a hammer blow.

Dons' mean defence has to point to Unders

Only four sides across the Football League this season (Inc Playoffs) have kept more clean sheets than AFC Wimbledon (23). That tally is already seven more than they've ever managed in another EFL campaign, whilst the last side to keep clean sheets in their three League Two play-off matches in the same season were Northampton Town in 2019-20.

Walsall have scored more goals (79) including the playoffs and generated a higher xG (77.1) than any other team. In fact, across the entire EFL this campaign, only Leeds United (95) and Birmingham City (84) have struck more goals than the Saddlers.

However, the market is very much siding with the Dons and their frugal backline with the Under 2.5 Goals at a prohibitive 4/9 and the BTTS 'No' at 4/6 and that has to be due to their record of conceding just 16 goals at Plough Lane all season - a superior number to both promoted Port Vale and champions Doncaster, with only Bradford shipping in fewer.

I like both the bets in truth, despite Walsall's xG for the season highlighted previously, but I don't admire the prices much. And while the Under 1.5 Goals market is often fraught with a bit of danger, we have the 31/20 there to play with.

Swerve Stevens for first goal and chance Allen

Matty Stevens has notched 20 goal contributions (17 goals, 3 assists) this term for the Londoners, but the bulk of that tally came in the winter and Stevens has scored just once since mid-February

Riley Harbottle was the unlikely source in Wimbledon's first leg against Notts County, and Josh Neufville got the only goal of the return match.

It's hard to fancy Stevens as Anytime Scorer at 5/2 purely on that quiet run and how little possession the Dons have. Jackson knows how to set his team up to sit and defend, and they only had 26% of the ball over 90 minutes in the home match against the Magpies - so without the ball, Walsall might create the better opportunities.

Walsall's Taylor Allen has scored six of his 10 league goals this season from outside the box, only Notts County's David McGoldrick (7) has netted more goals from distance in the top four tiers of English Football in 2024-25. The defender does take penalties too and with my prediction going for a tight one - we've got 11/1 To Score First and 6/1 To Score Anytime, and those two are punts perhaps worth taking.

Recommended bets

Back the draw Wimbledon v Walsall 0.5pt @ 19/10

Back Under 1.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 31/20

Back Taylor Allen To Score First 0.5pt @ 11/1

EFL and FA Cup Multiples P & L season including all antepost bets settled