Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Brighton 2 Newcastle 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These were five 3pm Premier League matches, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Burnley 0.51 v Leeds 2.33 (2-0)

Palace 4.56 v Bournemouth 2.05 (3-3)

Man City 2.48 v Everton 0.79 (2-0)

Sunderland 1.02 v Wolves 0.68 (2-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

A cracking six goal thriller between Palace and Bournemouth, clearly a very open game and a lot of chances. However, despite a massive Expected Goals stat of 4.56 compared to Bournemouth’s less than half of that 2.05, Palace almost got nothing from the match as the Cherries led 2-0 and then 3-2, as the home side wasted a lot of massive chances, whilst the away team were more clinical. Plus, Mateta got a hat-trick but wasted a huge easy chance late on to win it.

Speaking of clinical…Burnley winning 2-0 despite an Expected Goals stat of 0.51 compared to Leeds’ 2.33, the visitors will have been kicking themselves after losing and not even scoring a single goal, despite creating a decent number of very decent chances.

Man City (Expected Goals stat of 2.48) clearly creating far more clear chances than Everton (0.79) and deserving a regulation 2-0 home win.

Whilst Sunderland (1.02) edged it against Wolves (0.68) when it came to clear chances, although 2-0 flattered them.

So then, what about Newcastle United then?

As you can see above the Newcastle Expected Goals stat of 1.28, compared to Brighton’s 0.86, clearly shows that United didn’t deserve to lose this one, based on the overall game, the number and quality of chances. Newcastle’s Expected Goals stat advantage over Brighton, was greater than the Mackems’ Expected Goals stat over Wolves. United’s overall play deserving something from the game but Welbeck’s two top quality finishes were so clinical.

Nick Woltemade scored that glorious goal from a difficult scoring opportunity but the team as a whole have to step it up when it comes to taking chances.

Backing up the Expected Goals stats, the other underlying stats back up the suggestion that Newcastle definitely deserved something thanks to their far better second half display. In the match, Newcastle who were playing away had more possession (56% v 44%) than Brighton, as well as more shots (16 v 13).

Brighton 2 Newcastle 1 – Saturday 18 October 2025 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Woltemade 76

Brighton:

Welbeck 41, 85

Possession was Newcastle 54% Brighton 46%

Total shots were Newcastle 16 Brighton 13

Shots on target were Newcastle 3 Brighton 5

Corners were Newcastle 4 Brighton 8

Touches in the box Newcastle 25 Brighton 29

Newcastle team v Brighton:

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno (Osula 86), Joelinton (Miley 46), Tonali (Ramsey 70), Gordon (Barnes 70), Woltemade, Elanga (Murphy 46)

Unused subs:

Ramsdale, Krafth, Willock, Schar