How Aston Villa can shape rivals’ European destinies | OneFootball

Aston Villa look secure in the Champions League places, yet their run-in could decide rivals’ European fates.

NY Times notes their run-in carries unusual leverage. Sunday’s 4-3 against Sunderland, plus Chelsea’s 1-0 home loss to Manchester United the night before, left Villa 10 points clear of sixth with five to play.

With an extra Champions League berth for 2026-27, fifth will qualify. Villa need two more wins, and Opta’s supercomputer puts their chance of dropping from the top five at 1.43 per cent.

Focus can shift to Europe. Villa face Nottingham Forest in Europa League semi-finals on April 30 and May 7, with Braga against Freiburg in the other tie.

If Villa win the Europa League and also finish top five, they cannot take two Champions League places. Finish fourth or higher and the winners’ slot moves outside England to the highest-ranked qualifiers, the league stays on five spots.

If they finish fifth and lift the trophy, the extra performance place drops to sixth, currently Chelsea. That would aid a side seven points off fifth-placed Liverpool after four straight defeats.

It would also pull in Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton, Everton and Sunderland. Brentford and Bournemouth trail Chelsea only on goal difference, and Brighton can go above them tonight with a home win over Bournemouth.

Chelsea visit Liverpool on May 9. Liverpool are three behind Villa with superior goal difference, so unless Chelsea erase a seven-point gap, Liverpool finishing above Villa could suit Chelsea.

Source: NY Times