Is a draw enough for Scotland against Morocco to qualify for World Cup knockout stage? | OneFootball

Scotland face Morocco in their second World Cup match after a 1-0 victory over Haiti put them in an excellent position to secure progress to the knockout stage for the first time in their history.

Despite a display that lacked beauty, Steve Clarke’s side edged past Haiti thanks to John McGinn’s scrappy effort.

While Morocco held five-time champions Brazil in a 1-1 draw to begin their campaign, impressing in the first half and leading thanks to Ismael Saibari, with the PSV forward poised to join Bayern Munich this summer, before Vinicius Jr equalised for the Selecao.

Clarke has hailed Mohamed Ouahbi’s side and believes they could be better than the side that reached the semi-finals four years ago in Qatar.

So how will Scotland approach their second match and how will it leave their position in the tournament?

Will a draw be enough for Scotland to qualify for the knockout stage?

Not officially, but it will almost certainly be enough.

The World Cup 2026 will see the top two teams in the 12 groups guaranteed qualification to the knockout stages, which starts with a last 32 round.

But there are also eight spots for third-placed teams, with the highest points and then goal difference deciding which four teams in third will miss out, but that will only become clearer after two full rounds of fixtures in each group.

While three points and a positive goal difference is likely to be enough, four points is extremely likely to be enough, but Scotland would need to wait until later in the tournament to be confirmed, instead of at full-time should they draw against Morocco to reach four points from two games. With several teams putting together a run of draws, there could be a number of teams in third with four points.

The format of the Euros gives us a bit of a clue, though. Four points (so one win, a draw and a defeat) is almost guaranteed to be enough. One win on its own is sometimes not enough to go through, particularly with a negative goal difference.

At Euro 2016, third-placed sides Turkey and Albania were eliminated on three points despite both winning one of their games and losing the other two.

At Euro 2020, Finland and Slovakia both finished third in their group with one win and two defeats, but three points was not enough to qualify.

And in Euro 2024, Hungary were eliminated on three points while Slovenia did ‘a Portugal’ and advanced despite three draws and zero wins.

Regarding the first tie-breaker, Fifa have opted for head-to-head, instead of goal difference, initially, which could come into play.

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(PA)

Will Scotland qualify if they defeat Morocco?

Yes, this one is more simple, Scotland would remain top of Group C on six points with a win over Morocco, leaving the Africans five points behind with one game remaining. And no matter the result between Haiti and Brazil, one of those sides would be five points behind as well, before Scotland travel to Miami to face Brazil.

Based on the examples of previous tournaments at the Euros, the ranking of third-place teams will be determined by goal difference.

In 2016, Turkey and Albania were eliminated because they finished their group with a goal difference of -2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Northern Ireland advanced on three points and an even goal difference.

At Euro 2020, Finland also went out with a goal difference of -2, with Ukraine progressing on three points and a goal difference of -1.

And in 2024, Hungary’s goal difference of -3 was not good enough to advance, despite them beating Scotland in their final game.

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(Getty)

The magic number for progress is therefore likely to be three points, plus a goal difference of at least -1 - the higher, the better, obviously.

In theory, this would involve winning one match, and then limiting the margin of defeat in the other two matches to one goal.

It would be an extremely risky strategy, however, and would leave a team right on the cusp of elimination, relying on other results.

While finishing third in the group on four points - so a win, a draw and a loss - is highly unlikely to send a team out, the chances of a team advancing on two points - so a draw plus two defeats - are also extremely remote.