OPTA projections on how all 36 Champions League clubs will perform – Including Newcastle United… | OneFootball

How will Newcastle United and the other 35 Champions League clubs get on this 2025/26 season?

We are about to find out.

The league stage of the Champions League kicks off at 5.45pm later today, the first of three days/nights in a row of the first round of matches.

Eight rounds in all at the league stage, with each of the 36 clubs playing four games away and four at home.

Opta have done their Champions League 2025-26 Projections for all 36 teams.

The Athletic have covered those projections in a new report – 16 September 2025:

Throughout the season, we will publish projections — powered by Opta data…

Each team plays eight matches in the new league phase, four at home and four away. They play eight different opponents, rather than facing the same teams home and away, as was the case in the previous format. The top eight sides in the league qualify automatically for the round of 16. Teams finishing from 9th to 24th in the league compete in a two-legged knock-out phase play-off, with the winner of each match-up advancing to the last 16 of the competition. Teams that finished 25th or lower in the league phase are eliminated from the competition. No teams drop down to the Europa League.

Opta’s win prediction model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome (win, draw or loss) by using a combination of betting market odds and Opta’s team power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances and the competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.

Before Matchday 1

How teams stack up in the race for automatic qualification and the playoffs in the Champions League

(So there are five predictions below. Starting with predicted number of points from each club’s eight league matches (out of a possible 24), the percentage chance of instant elimination at the league stage without eve reaching play-offs (finish 25th or below in league), percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs (finish 9th to 24th in league stage), percentage chance of finishing top eight in the league stage and straight to knockout last 16, percentage chance of winning the Champions League)

So the Opta predictions for Newcastle United

Predicted number of points from the eight league matches – 12 points from a possible 24.

Percentage chance of instant elimination at the league stage – A 17% chance of finishing 25th or lower.

Percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs – A 55% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of finishing top eight in the league stage and straight to knockout last 16 – A 27% chance of finishing top eight.