PFA Player of the Year: Ignore favourite Rice and back this huge odds City legend | OneFootball

Declan Rice is poor value for the PFA award

The PFA Player of the Year betting looks all wrong according to Lewis Jones, who says Declan Rice is a short price at 2.5 on the Betfair Exchange. Could one of Manchester City's stars make a late surge with title momentum in their favour?

PFA market to shift as Arsenal grip starts slipping?

The shift in the betting for the Premier League title - it is now as close as 8/13 Arsenal, 11/10 City on the Betfair Sportsbook - has also turned the market for the PFA Player of the Year into an interesting tussle to analyse.

Much like Arsenal, who are wobbling at the head of the title betting there is serious vulnerability about Declan Rice grabbing enough votes to take the player award. Odds of 2.5 on the Betfair Exchange surely are far too skinny now.

Rewind a few weeks and Arsenal players dominating this market made perfect sense. They were powering towards the title, controlling games, dictating narratives. Individual brilliance tends to look even brighter when it's wrapped in a title-winning story.

But now? The landscape has shifted dramatically.

Prospect of a title blowout makes Gunners options poor value

Manchester City are looming large again, applying relentless pressure and swinging momentum in the title race. History tells us this matters. PFA voters - the players themselves - are heavily influenced by the biggest moments, the sharpest performances and the defining run-ins.

Is Rice that player?

At his best this season, he has been a colossus - driving midfield and dragging Arsenal through tight spots.

But lately? The influence has dipped.

Rice hasn't been stamping authority on games in the same way. The eye-catching moments have dried up just as the pressure has ramped up. That's a dangerous combination when you're trading at odds-on territory in a subjective award market.

At 2.52, you're essentially betting that voters have already made up their minds. That feels like a big assumption.

How is 22-goal Haaland 6/1 for Player of the Year?

We've reached the stage of the season where players are actively forming their opinions. Ballots aren't decided in January - they're shaped in April and May.

Hot form now is gold dust.

Each PFA member selects two players - one for Player of the Year and one for Young Player - and they cannot vote for their own teammates. That opens the door for standout performers from rival clubs, especially those delivering under the brightest lights in the title run-in.

Momentum, narrative, recency bias - call it what you want. It matters. A lot.

If you're pivoting away from Arsenal, then Manchester City provide the most obvious hunting ground - and the prices on offer suggest the market hasn't fully caught up yet.

How about Erling Haaland then at 7.0 on the Betfair Exchange?

It almost feels strange seeing him at that price. A striker sitting on 22 league goals in April would usually be odds-on for this award. But we've become so accustomed to Haaland operating at ridiculous levels that anything slightly below historic output gets framed as underwhelming.

That perception could be misleading.

If Haaland explodes between now and the final day - and that's always a live possibility - and pushes towards the 30-goal mark, voters will take notice. Goals still carry huge weight in these conversations, especially when they arrive in decisive, title-defining moments.

Silva is big price value in PFA race

But the standout value bet just might be Bernardo Silva at 50.0.

Silva has been the heartbeat of this City side all season. Captain, tone-setter, relentless presser - the kind of player teammates feel every single week, even if the wider public doesn't always shout about it.

And, he's leaving the club at the end of the season. That narrative matters. If he's the man leading City to another title - potentially even a domestic treble - there's the romance angle to consider here to his candidacy.

He's turned himself into a machine this season. Durable, consistent, and utterly selfless in his work. The type of player other professionals respect enormously.

And remember: this is a players' vote.

Silva might not dominate highlight reels, but inside dressing rooms across the league, his influence won't have gone unnoticed.

The smart move right now in this market is to start exploring alternatives to Rice. Because if the title heads to Manchester again, you can bet the PFA votes might just follow it.