Opta Predicts Liverpool v Man Utd: Back Salah and Fernandes in 7/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Liverpool's indifferent performances at the start of the season were glossed over by late winners. The Reds won their first four Premier League games of 2025/26 in dramatic fashion late on - in fact, the earliest, decisive goal they scored across those fixtures came in the 83rd minute.

But the tale was flipped on its head before the international break, as Liverpool lost three games in the space of a week, going down to Crystal Palace and Chelsea in the league, as well as Galatasaray in Europe, piling on the pressure heading into Sunday's clash with Manchester United at Anfield.

With title rivals Arsenal in action against Fulham on Saturday, Liverpool could be as far as four points off the leaders by kick-off, so Arne Slot will be desperate for his team to get back on track quickly.

United, meanwhile, reached the international window in 10th place on the back of beating Sunderland at home. Ruben Amorim's team have alternated between a win and a defeat in their last four outings, but the trip to Merseyside is a daunting one.

Ahead of a huge clash, we dive into the Opta data and pick out some of our favourite selections to make up a Bet Builder.

Liverpool favourites despite losing run

Despite their struggles, Liverpool are favourites, a case supported by their fine recent record in this fixture.

The Reds have lost just one of their last 14 Premier League meetings with United (W7 D6). Since the start of 2018-19, this is the fewest defeats any side to face the Red Devils at least three times in the competition has had against them.

United are winless in their last nine league games at Anfield, although there have been five draws in that run, including an entertaining 2-2 in the corresponding fixture last season.

Liverpool could become just the second side to avoid defeat in 10+ successive Premier League home games against United, after Chelsea.

The Opta supercomputer also likes the chances of a Liverpool win, allocating the home side a 73.3% chance of victory, with United coming out on top in just 11.2% of the model's data-led simulations.

United won away to the reigning Premier League title-holders Manchester City last season, but they have not beaten the defending English champions on the road in back-to-back league seasons since 1908, highlighting the scale of their challenge.

Amorim's side are winless in their last eight league away games (D2 L6) since beating Leicester City, who went on to be relegated, 3-0 in March. United last went longer without a top-tier win on the road in 1989 (11).

So even if punters are minded to lean into Liverpool's recent struggles, there should be huge caution before getting fully behind United.

Dodgy defences could mean goals at both ends

Liverpool's preparations have not been helped by a knock sustained by Ibrahima Konate, but Slot expects the centre-back to be fit.

Injury aside, Konate's form has been a worry for Liverpool this season, and with Giovanni Leoni out for the rest of the campaign, Slot doesn't have too many natural options to fill in. He replaced Konate with Ryan Gravenberch during the second-half at Stamford Bridge, and with first-choice goalkeeper Alisson still injured, United's attack may well fancy their chances.

United top the charts in the division this season for expected goals, having created chances worth 14.1 xG. Their problem, though, has been taking those chances, as United have scored just nine times - their xG-to-goals differential of -5.1 is the worst in the top-flight.

Liverpool have shipped nine goals in their seven league games, from 7.9 xG against (xGA). Interestingly, 4.8 of that xGA has come across their last four fixtures - a higher figure than has been recorded by relegation candidates Leeds United (4.0) and winless Wolves (3.8) over that time.

While Liverpool are the team to beat, they are giving up chances, and United have scored five goals across their last three matches.

Both teams to score therefore holds appeal and can be backed at 40/85, while a Liverpool win and BTTS is 17/10. For those inclined to back the visitors, United to win and BTTS is offered at 13/2 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

With goals expected, over 2.5 goals is understandably quite short at 2/5, so over 3.5 match goals may tempt some at a more appealing 21/10.

It's also worth looking out for late drama. Following their rescue acts early in the campaign, in Liverpool's most recent domestic defeats they conceded in the 97th and 95th minutes, respectively.

Liverpool's seven Premier League games this season have already seen four 90th-minute (or later) winning goals (two for, two against) and there have been 15 second-half goals scored in those fixtures.

Additionally, last season's 2-2 draw between these teams at Anfield saw all four goals scored from the 52nd minute onwards.

An enticing pick, then, could be backing second-half goals. It is 1/1 for a range of 2-3 goals to be scored after the break, while backing 3-4 goals scored in the second-half is available at 5/2.

Pressure on for Isak and Salah against Man Utd

Liverpool's attackers should come into this game with plenty of cause for optimism.

Only Arsenal (56) and Newcastle (62) have faced fewer shots than United (64) in the Premier League this season, but despite this, the Red Devils have the fourth-highest expected goals against figure in the division (10.1). When United do give up chances, they tend to be big ones. Indeed, their average xG-per-shot faced of 0.16 is the highest of any top-flight side in 2025-26.

Alexander Isak is still finding his feet at Anfield, but there wouldn't be many better fixtures for the Swede to truly announce himself as a Liverpool player. He is 7/2 to open the scoring and can be backed to have at least three shots on target at 7/2, at least two shots on target at 6/5, and one at 1/4. Isak to score anytime can be backed at 5/6.

Isak has had four shots on target across his six appearances for the Reds, though he is yet to manage one in the league. Slot has said it is now "fair" to judge the forward as he returns to full fitness, so the 26-year-old will be wanting to make an impact.

Hugo Ekitike will hope to be back in Slot's good books after his reckless red card back in September. The Frenchman is 11/10 to score. Cody Gakpo, meanwhile, found the net against Chelsea and is 7/4 to do so again here. Federico Chiesa has played the super-sub role this season, and is 15/8 to grab a goal.

Much of the focus has been on Mohamed Salah's form, though, with the Egyptian far from the levels he showed last season.

However, Salah has more goals (13) and goal involvements (19 - also six assists) against United than any other player in Premier League history.

Despite a recent slump by his high standards, the 33-year-old has created at least two chances in 12 of his previous 15 Premier League appearances, while recording at least two shots in each of his last three games. So, he is keeping himself involved.

Backing Salah to have 3+ shots on target returns 5/1, while you can still get an odds-against price of 8/5 for him to record 2+ shots on target. Just one shot on target for Salah can be backed at 1/3.

United have faced 28 shots on target in the league this season, an average of four per game, with new signing Senne Lammens expected to continue in goal after he replaced Altay Bayindir against Sunderland last time out. Liverpool, meanwhile, have averaged 4.2 shots on target per game.

That data, combined with the expectation for Liverpool to have more of the play, means a price of 6/5 for the United goalkeeper to make four or more saves may hold appeal. He is also 13/5 for five or more and 5/1 for at least six stops.

At the other end, United have averaged 4.8 shots on target in their league matches this term - Liverpool's goalkeeper is 7/5 to make four stops, and 3/1 to make over five.

As for United's leading lights, Matheus Cunha could be a player to take advantage of Liverpool's defensive fragility. Though he has yet to score for United, the Brazilian has attempted 3+ shots in four of his six top-flight appearances for the club.

Mason Mount scored his first Premier League goal in nine appearances when he netted against Sunderland - and just his third overall in the competition for United - after being preferred to Cunha on the left of Amorim's attack. The former Chelsea midfielder is 5/1 to make it two goals in as many matches.

Sesko is United's joint-leading scorer in the league along with Bruno Fernandes, who offers up an intriguing option at 7/2 for 2+ shots on target, while the Portugal international is 4/5 to have at least one and 11/4 to score.

Fernandes has scored three goals in 11 games against Liverpool in all competitions, with his last strike against the Reds coming in April 2024, though he did provide an assist against them in January.

Tempers could boil over at Anfield

United have had 11 red cards dealt their way in Premier League games against Liverpool - four more than against any other opponent. Seven of those have been straight reds.

And only against Everton (eight) have Liverpool had more Premier League red cards than United (seven).

It is 4/1 for a red card to be shown in the match, while United's odds of going down to 10 are 13/2, and Liverpool's 8/1.

But United head into the weekend having had just six bookings in the Premier League, the lowest tally in the division. Liverpool have had 15 brandished their way in 2025/26 - only five teams have collected more.

United 8/11 are the favourites to receive more cards on the Sportsbook, but the above data suggests Liverpool could hold appeal at 11/5. However, it is worth noting the Reds are the competition's third-lowest foulers (65).

Liverpool defender Conor Bradley, though, has been booked in five of his last 10 top-flight appearances, including three of his last five, while conceding 3+ fouls in two of his last three games.

The Northern Irishman is 9/2 to commit at least three fouls, 6/5 to concede two and 2/1 to receive a booking. He was taken off at half-time against Chelsea with Slot fearing he would land a second yellow, so there is a question mark over whether he will start.

Patrick Dorgu did not start for United against Sunderland, with Diogo Dalot playing left wing-back and Amad Diallo on the right. But will Amorim be so brave at Anfield? Dorgu has been a regular, with only four Red Devils outfielders tallying up more league minutes this term.

The lively Dane has been fouled 18 times, with only Bruno Guimaraes (19) and Jack Grealish (26) winning more free-kicks in the league. He is 11/8 to be fouled three times or more.

On the other side, Gakpo has won 13 fouls. A Dalot booking can be backed at 13/5.

Fernandes, meanwhile, is always likely to be in the thick of the action, particularly in a high-stakes clash. This season, he already has two goals and two missed penalties for United, as well as picking up four yellow cards for club and country.

Deployed in a deeper role than he would perhaps like, there is more onus on Fernandes to tackle. He has already attempted 14 in the league this season, a tally topped by just two United players, and has conceded six fouls.

He is 6/5 to commit 2+ fouls, 9/2 to make three or more and 15/8 to be booked. And across his Premier League career, Fernandes has only received more bookings against Brighton (four) than he has Liverpool (three).

Punters could also back United's captain to commit two or more fouls and be fouled at least twice at 9/2. Fernandes has been fouled 13 times in total this term.