Pep Guardiola’s defining rival underlines the truth about Man City and Real Madrid | OneFootball

Pep Guardiola might not bring up his half-century. Recent Champions League history suggests he will, given that Manchester City and Real Madrid contrive to face each other every year, at some stage or another. For Guardiola, the former Barcelona ball boy turned manager, in a career that incorporated the captaincy as well, it is a 49th meeting with the arch-enemies.

He played against them 21 times, has managed against them on 27 occasions. Guardiola against Real has felt one of the defining battles of the 21st century. His Barcelona probably rank as the finest side of the millennium; and yet, since he became a coach, he has won three Champions Leagues and Real have won six. That could seem a crushing defeat for his footballing idealism, or merely explain why Guardiola always calls Real “the kings of Europe”.

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Guardiola will take on his nemesis Real Madrid for the 49th time as a player or manager (Getty Images)

In more recent times, Guardiola against Real could be deemed a battle for the soul of European football in another way. It was new money against old, the Premier League against La Liga, the UAE against the European Super League. If tectonic plates were forever shifting, perhaps they did not move as much as many expected. City conquered Europe once, in 2023, but they did not dominate it as some predicted. Arguably, though, it was only Real who held them at bay: in the last four seasons, City either won the competition or were knocked out by Real.

Yet last season’s was an exit with a difference: the team who came 22nd in the group stage, who lost to Sporting CP and Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, would have gone out anyway. The finishing blows were applied sleekly by Kylian Mbappe, with his hat-trick in the Bernabeu, but City were not going to win the Champions League.

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Defeat at the Bernabeu last season was the first time that Guardiola had been eliminated from the Champions League before the last-16 (Getty Images)

The context has shifted again now. If City lose in the Spanish capital, they will not be out, though it is very likely they will end up in the play-off round for a second successive season. It reflects a broader sense: Real against City may not be a clash of the continental superpowers, because only one of them belongs in that category. This may have been the first season of Guardiola management – with the possible exception of 2016-17 – when his side were not in the top tier of favourites for the Champions League. City probably belong in the second bracket now, below a host of teams with Guardiola influences.

Real are in the top group, despite Sunday’s defeat to Celta Vigo, the sense of discontent around the Bernabeu and the awkward start Xabi Alonso has endured. They have only won two of their last seven games but it is nevertheless far from implausible they will be celebrating “La Decimosexta” in Budapest in May.

And if not them, then someone who owes much to Guardiola, but isn’t at Manchester City. The Catalan’s disciples have grouped near the top of the table – after five rounds of the Champions League, the teams in first, second, third, fifth and seventh were managed by his former assistants, players or teammates.

Perhaps his knowledge has been shared a little too widely, perhaps everyone is a bit Pep. Or maybe, given this City side lack control and have less possession than their predecessors, Guardiola isn’t the one playing pure Guardiola football these days anyway.

One way or another, the City-Real rivalry may have been taken down a notch. The most recent flashpoint revolved around the Ballon d’Or. Rodri won it; not for the year when he delivered the decider in the Champions League final, but 12 months later, in 2024. The Real vote was split with Vinicius Junior second, Jude Bellingham third and Dani Carvajal fourth.

It feels a moment in time, rather than the epic duel between Real’s Cristiano Ronaldo and Barcelona’s Lionel Messi. In 2025, the Brazilian finished 16th in the voting, the sidelined Spaniard nowhere; neither was a rival to the winner Ousmane Dembele. The injured Rodri will not play in the Bernabeu on Wednesday. The out-of-sorts Vinicius probably will but has gone 11 games without a goal. Real’s brightest star is now clearly Mbappe; Vinicius seems reluctant to sign a new contract and has had a difficult relationship with Alonso. City supporters unveiled an Oasis-inspired banner to Vinicius at the Etihad Stadium in February, with the message “Stop Crying Your Heart Out”, but these days his battles seem to be with those inside the Bernabeu.

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Vinicius Junior has failed to score in his last 11 games (Reuters)

It is a place that has brought Guardiola joy and heartbreak; perhaps in that order. He won in the Bernabeu five times with Barcelona, only once since leaving: a 2-1 victory in 2020, which, as the second leg was delayed five months by Covid, is understandably overlooked.

Since then, Guardiola has overseen two stunning semi-final wins at the Etihad: a 4-3 that was then overturned dramatically late in Spain and a 4-0 that in effect crowned City as the best team in Europe. It is only two and a half years ago but it seems a different era. With Guardiola’s contract up in 2027, he may finish with three Champions Leagues; it remains to be seen how long City are in the band of the one-time winners. Real, whether under Alonso or anyone else, should get to 16 sooner or later. And probably sooner.