Wednesday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Champions League and Championship | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Get the best bets for Wednesday's Champions League and Championship football

Get the best bets for Wednesday night's football in the Champions League as Arsenal host Bayern Munich as well as the pick of the Championship action...

Champions League tips and predictions

20:00 - Arsenal v Bayern Munich: Kane to take centre-stage

Kevin Hatchard: As my betting.betfair.com colleague Lewis Jones pointed out on the latest episode of Football Only Bettor, Harry Kane tends to draw fouls against quality opposition. This season he was fouled three times against PSG, six times against Borussia Dortmund and four against RB Leipzig. The England captain is excellent at getting Bayern up the pitch, and knows how to shield the ball.

We'll back Kane to be fouled twice or more here, we'll add in Bayern +2 on the Handicap and Over 1.5 Goals. With both sides having won four games out of four, I don't think this will be a cagey match, and Bayern will want this to be an open shootout to try to discomfit Arsenal. All of Bayern's matches this term have featured at least three goals, let alone two. Bayern will have been given a huge confidence boost by winning at PSG, and they can be competitive here. The combined price of this Bet Builder on the Sportsbook is 11/4.

You can find more Kane angles in Lewis Jones' Notebook column here.

20:00 - PSG v Tottenham: Back 3/1 Neves to net in thumping win for holders

Lewis Jones: Joao Neves, long known as a metronome of midfield control, has quietly undergone a positional glow-up this season. A subtle tweak from his manager has pushed him 10-20 yards higher, and in betting terms, that shift is pure gold.

Last season Neves' average position placed him as the heartbeat of build-up but he's clearly operating further forward this season. He's popping up in pockets where he's very hard to mark and his finishing is very instinctive and accurate, hence why he's scored six times in his last six starts.

His underlying numbers too reflect a player trending sharply upwards in threat with his shots per 90 figure up to 2.7 this season - an increase of 1.5 shots per 90 from PSG's all-conquering 24/25 campaign. And what's great about all this is that the market hasn't fully caught up.

When a player's on-pitch position changes to make him more of a goal threat but the market still prices him as the old model, you bet that edge until it has been eroded. The edge is with us here at 3/1 on Neves in the anytime goalscorer market. A very nice slice of value considering PSG are being given an implied probability of 73 per cent that they win this game.

20:00 - Liverpool v PSV: Back Szoboszlai to assist again

The Stat

No player has more assists in the UEFA Champions League this season than Liverpool's Dominik Szoboszlai (3), creating at least three chances in three of his four matches so far this season.

The Bet

Olympiacos v Real Madrid: Back Bellingham and co @ 7/2

Paul Higham: Real Madrid are 2/5 to bounce back from defeat at Anfield with victory at winless Olympiacos  who have just home draws against Pafos and PSV to their names so far. They were hammered 6-1 at Barcelona and are now 6/1 for an unlikely three points here.

Madrid aren't quite right at the moment though, following defeat at Liverpool with scrappy draws against Rayo Vallecano and Elche (where they needed a late Jude Bellignahm equaliser) so it may take them a while to get going. That's a theme for Xabi Alonso's side as three of four Champions League games and the last three overall have been level at the break.

The half-time draw here is 13/8 but Real will probably get the job done in the second-half - six of their eight goals in the competition this season have come after half-time - while the Greeks have conceded six of their nine goals in the second-half.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Champions League Match Day 5 Preview

Championship tips and predictions

19:45 Championship - Blackburn v QPR: Back goals at Ewood

Jack Critchley: Blackburn's sensational away form continued on Friday night with a 2-1 victory over Preston at Deepdale. Val Ismael's men have excelled at soaking up pressure and choosing the perfect moments to bounce. They are suffering from a bit of an injury crisis and their squad may benefit from having an extra day of rest ahead of this Wednesday night contest. Although they came out of the game with a lower xG than the hosts and created fewer chances overall, they took advantage of PNE's weakness in midfield. They were also impressive in wide areas with the two Ryans, Alebiosu and Hedges, causing constant issues for the home side.

Rovers' home form has been far from exemplary, winning just once so far. Ismael's side do tend to score at Ewood Park, notching in each of their last five and they were a goal up before their game against Ipswich was controversially abandoned.

QPR were back to their attacking best against Hull at the weekend with Julian Stephan's side finding their verve in the final third. They created an xG of 3.02, including 15 shots in side the box. Although Rovers' defence is likely to be a little more robust than Hull's, they should still get chances in this game. The return of Ilias Chair and Karamoko Dembele gives them far more dynamism going forward.