Corinthians enter final Women's Paulistão round with varied scenarios | OneFootball

Corinthians take the field this Wednesday (26) to decide their fate in the first phase of the Paulista Women’s Championship. The Brabas host Taubaté at 6:30 p.m. (Brasília time) at Fazendinha, in the seventh and final round, still with a chance to secure a direct spot in the semifinals, but depending on a combination of results. Emily Lima’s team starts the round in fourth place, with ten points earned in six matches.

So far, they have three wins, one draw and two losses, as well as 14 goals scored and eight conceded, resulting in a positive goal difference of six. Ahead of Corinthians are Ferroviária and Palmeiras, both with 13 points, while São Paulo sit third with 12. Red Bull Bragantino, with seven, Santos, with six, Taubaté, with four, and Mirassol, with one, complete the standings before the decisive round.

Photo: Rodrigo Gazzanel / Ag. Corinthians

The rules make the race especially important. The top two teams advance directly to the semifinals. The teams finishing between third and sixth place will have an additional path: they will play in the play-in, in home-and-away matchups, for the other two semifinal spots.

What do Corinthians need to reach the top two?

The Brabas’ first obligation is to beat Taubaté. With the three points, Corinthians would reach 13 and keep alive the possibility of finishing in the top two. A draw or a loss eliminates any chance of direct qualification to the semifinals.

Besides doing their part, Timão mainly need to keep an eye on Palmeiras vs. Red Bull Bragantino. A Palmeiras win or draw would take their rivals to at least 14 points, a total Corinthians can no longer reach. Therefore, for there to be any chance of a top-two finish, the Brabas must win and Palmeiras must lose.

The other important match pits Ferroviária against São Paulo. If São Paulo win, they reach 15 points and guarantee a position ahead of Corinthians. In this scenario, a Palmeiras defeat would leave Ferroviária, Corinthians and Palmeiras all on 13 points, sending the decision for the second spot to the tiebreakers.

If Ferroviária and São Paulo draw, the Araraquara team would reach 14 points, while São Paulo would get to 13. With a Corinthians win and a Palmeiras loss, three clubs would finish tied on 13 points in the fight for second place: Corinthians, São Paulo and Palmeiras.

If Ferroviária win, they reach 16 points and secure one of the top two places. São Paulo would remain on 12, while a Corinthians win and a Palmeiras loss would leave Timão and Palmeiras tied on 13 in the race for the second spot.

In any situation where teams are level on points, the first tiebreaker is number of wins. Then come goal difference and goals scored. If the tie remains, red cards, yellow cards and, lastly, a draw are considered.

That is why it is not enough just to watch the results. The scorelines in this round could also be decisive for Corinthians, especially because Palmeiras, Ferroviária and São Paulo have numbers close to the Brabas in the tiebreakers.

What if Corinthians do not reach the top two?

Direct qualification is not the only possibility for the black-and-white team. Corinthians already enter the round inside the zone that leads to the play-in, but their final position can still change.

With a win, even if the combination needed to reach the top two does not happen, the Brabas can improve their position and reach the play-in with a better campaign. A draw takes Corinthians to 11 points and guarantees that the team stays ahead of Red Bull Bragantino, who can reach a maximum of ten.

A defeat is the scenario that opens up the greatest possibility of a change in the standings. Corinthians would remain on ten points and could be caught by Bragantino if the team from Bragança Paulista beat Palmeiras. In that case, the tiebreakers would be needed to determine who finishes ahead.

Santos are also fighting for position in the table, but cannot reach Corinthians’ ten points. Currently on six, the team from Baixada Santista can get to, at most, nine.

How do Corinthians and Taubaté come into the match?

The Brabas are coming off a 4-1 win over Mirassol in the previous round. Before that, they beat Ferroviária 1-0, lost the Derby to Palmeiras 1-0, drew 2-2 with Santos, thrashed Red Bull Bragantino 6-0 and were beaten by São Paulo 2-1 in the opener.

Taubaté, meanwhile, are in seventh place with four points. The team has one win, one draw and four losses, with six goals scored and nine conceded. Besides Corinthians vs. Taubaté, the round will also feature Ferroviária vs. São Paulo, Palmeiras vs. Red Bull Bragantino and Santos vs. Mirassol. All four matches are scheduled for 6:30 p.m. (Brasília time) this Wednesday.

So Corinthians enter the final 90 minutes of the first phase with two possible paths for the rest of the state championship. The better one depends on a win at Fazendinha, a Palmeiras defeat, and a favorable combination in the Ferroviária vs. São Paulo match and in the tiebreakers. If the direct spot does not come, the Brabas will continue in contention through the play-in route.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.