Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Marseille 2 Newcastle 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well teams play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Marseille 2 Newcastle 1:

Marseille 1.69 Newcastle United 1.46

As you can see, these Expected Goals stats giving us a very good extra insight into how Tuesday night really played out.

I thought at the final whistle that Newcastle United had deserved a point and that especially as the away side they had done more than enough to have earned that.

These Expected Goals stats backing that up, so little (1.69 v 1.46) in it. When you are that closely matched as the visitors, it is tough to take.

Especially when you look at the other relevant underlying stats (see below).

Newcastle United had more shots (20 v 18) than Marseille, more efforts on target (9 v 7), more touches by NUFC players in the opposition penalty area (31 v 26).

It was only corners (11 v 5) where Marseille had an advantage, plus possession (57% v 43%).

What for me it came down to, was a clinical top quality (even if 36 years old now) finisher, who produced two brilliant strikes for Marseille. Fine margins.

Marseille 2 Newcastle 1 – Tuesday 25 November 2025 8pm

Match Stats

Newcastle United:

Barnes 6

Marseille:

Aubameyang 46, 50

Possession was Newcastle 43% Marseille 57%

Total shots were Newcastle 20 Marseille 18

Shots on target were Newcastle 9 Marseille 7

Corners were Newcastle 5 Marseille 11

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 31 Marseille 26

Newcastle team v Marseille:

Pope, Livramento (Hall 60), Thiaw, Schar (Elanga 61), Burn, Willock (Ramsey 72), Bruno, Tonali, Barnes, Gordon (Woltemade 72), Murphy (Miley 60)