Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Barcelona 2 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well teams play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Newcastle 1 Barcelona 2, via BBC Sport:

Newcastle United 1.46 v Barcelona 1.31

As you can see, these Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how the match really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Not much in it but as the Expected Goals stats prove, Newcastle United having slightly the better/more goalscoring chances.

Of course, you then take other information into consideration.

With our own eyes we saw that despite Barcelona having far more possession (64% v Newcastle’s 36%), the overwhelming majority of it was in non-threatening areas. It was always going to be Eddie Howe’s tactics against such a technically good opposition, to sit back in if Barcelona successfully broke the high press, let Barca play it about in front of the defensive line. Then when getting the ball, United hoping to use the pace of the likes of Anthony Elanga. We watched as Newcastle created some very good chances, more than Barcelona did.

As well as our own eyes and the Expected Goals stats, you can also look at other key underlying stats.

Newcastle had more corners (6 v 4) and more efforts on target (6 v 5). Barcelona did have more overall shots (19 v 10) but that also simply reflects the fact that whilst they had more possession, they struggled to get into clear goalscoring positions and the vast majority of their shots were from distance.

Everything points to the fact that Newcastle United for sure deserved at least a draw, however, a truly world class finish from Rashford won the game.

Newcastle 1 Barcelona 2 – Thursday 18 September 2025 8pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Gordon 90

Barcelona:

Rashford 58, 67

Possession was Newcastle 36% Barcelona 64%

Total shots were Newcastle 10 Barcelona 19

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 Barcelona 5

Corners were Newcastle 6 Barcelona 4

Touches in the box Newcastle 28 Barcelona 38

Newcastle team v Barcelona:

Pope, Trippier (Botman 76), Schar (Thiaw 63), Burn, Livramento, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton (Willock 62), Barnes (Woltemade 62), Gordon, Elanga (Murphy 63)

Unused subs:

Thompson, Ramsdale, Hall, Krafth, Osula, Miley, A Murphy

(Match Report – Hang on, what do I say if he wants one at the next game? Read HERE)

(It didn’t take long for them to come after Eddie Howe – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after 2-1 Barcelona defeat – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 1 Barcelona 2 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

Newcastle United fixtures definitely confirmed dates and times (All of the Champions League matches will also be available to watch on TV in the UK):

Sunday 21 September – Bournemouth v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 24 September – Newcastle v Bradford (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Sunday 28 September– Newcastle v Arsenal (4.30pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 1st October: Union SG vs Newcastle United (5.45pm)

Sunday 5 October– Newcastle v Forest (2pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 18 October – Brighton v Newcastle (3pm)

Tuesday 21st October: Newcastle United vs Benfica (8pm)

Saturday 25 October – Newcastle v Fulham (3pm)

Sunday 2 November – West Ham v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 5th November: Newcastle United vs Athletic Club (8pm)

Sunday 9 November – Brentford v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 22 November – Newcastle v Man City (5.30pm) Sky Sports