Galatasaray v Liverpool: Back 5/1 Osimhen to cause Reds early concern | OneFootball

Reds much better in Europe

Liverpool have been plagued by false dawns and mixed form in the Premier League this season. That's why their title defence has collapsed and they're having to battle hard to make next season's Champions League.

But it's fair to say that for a large chunk of the current campaign, the Reds have looked far happier playing in Europe. Florian Wirtz's better performances came there when he was trying to get up to speed in the Premier League and, stylistically, Liverpool much prefer the purer football compared to the physicality, set-piece emphasis and low blocks they face domestically.

It explains why Arne Slot's men finished third in the 36-team Champions League table, racking up six wins out of eight and only finishing behind Arsenal and Bayern Munich.

As for their two defeats, both came during a shocking run when they lost nine times in 12 matches. The second was a 4-1 home spanking by PSV but the first was a 1-0 loss to Galatasaray in Turkey.

That should make the Reds wary - for this first leg of this last-16 tie at least.

Galatasaray dangerous but prone to collapse

Galatasaray secured that late September win over Liverpool thanks to an early (arguably dubious) penalty converted by Victor Osimhen. The striker could have added to his tally later in the game and 1-0 didn't really flatter the hosts.

While that was a night to remember, the fact that Galatasaray are lining up against Liverpool again in the knockout stages shows it wasn't a one-off.

The Turks won three, drew one and lost four of their eight league phase matches to finish 20th but in the playoffs they stunned Juventus 7-5 on aggregate.

They did the damage with a 5-2 win at home after trailing 2-1 at half-time. Juan Cabal's red card for the visitors certainly helped although they'd already gone 3-2 up by then.

In the return, Gala almost blew it. They lost 3-0 on the night in Turin despite Juve again being reduced to 10 men (49th minute) but came through with two goals in extra-time.

To put it mildly, Galatasaray are capable of highs and lows - but that makes them dangerous.

Liverpool hot favourites to progress

There's absolutely no doubt who the market expects to go through to the last eight. Liverpool are just 1/5 to qualify while Galatasaray, whose fans have been banned for the second leg at Anfield, are 7/2 to make it to the quarters. The winners take on PSG or Chelsea by the way.

For Tuesday evening's encounter, Galatasaray are 10/3, Liverpool 3/4 and The Draw 31/10.

It's a bit much to use the phrase 'can lightning strike twice?' as it wouldn't be the biggest shock to see Galatasaray triumph again in front of their vociferous home fans.

But Liverpool were clearly not right the last time they visited Rams Park having just lost in the last-minute to Crystal Palace three days earlier. The Reds also lost to PSV on the back of a heavy home defeat to Nottingham Forest.

This time, they've had the boost of beating Wolves 3-1 in the FA Cup on Friday night although, in truth, with a second leg to come I'm not dashing to back the Reds either and will leave the match market alone.

UEFA Champions League: Galatasaray v Liverpool (Match Odds)

Tuesday 10 March, 5.45pm

Osimhen can punish slow starting Reds

Goalscorers are more interesting and the best, and most obvious, pro-Galatasaray bet would be another strike from Osimhen. The Nigerian has scored in six of his last nine games and is 7/5 for another.

It's an option but I prefer the 5/1 for First Goalscorer. He did that in the first meeting with Liverpool and repeated the feat at the weekend in the 1-0 win over Besiktas. The Reds are notoriously slow starters in games and Galatasaray will surely come flying out of the blocks.

Liverpool will have the rest of the match and the second leg to bounce back from an early blow and I'd fully expect them to do so given their experience and pedigree in this competition.

So is there a Liverpool bet worth taking on Tuesday?

Ekitike and Wirtz most likely men for Reds

While Mo Salah has scored in his last two games (both at Wolves), they were his first away goals since October. It's Hugo Ekitike who is now the focus of Liverpool's attacks.

With Betfair offering punters the chance to Bet £10 and Get £10 on European football accas and bet builders, I was hoping to combine an Ekitike goal with a Wirtz assist but the latter may start on the bench having just come back from injury. For the record that combo is just short of 4/1.

Wirtz had six goals and three assists across December and January so could also be worth an anytime scorer bet at 13/5 if he gets the nod.

Elsewhere, Joe Gomez is worth considering in the 'to be carded' market when prices go up although, again, it's worth seeing the starting line-ups.

Gomez could be used at right back if Liverpool want a more solid rearguard but he's had some tough away nights in Europe down the years and won't be afraid to take a yellow if under the cosh or the Reds get exposed on the break.