Leeds United v Manchester United: Farke's men to impress again | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Leeds United can add to Manchester United's recent woes

Leeds United are on fine form as they prepare to face old foes Manchester United, and Kevin Hatchard is backing the hosts to secure a positive result...

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Leeds United v Manchester UnitedSunday 04 January, 12:30

Farke faith is being rewarded

While there is no doubt that Daniel Farke's decision to switch Leeds United's formation to a back three has reaped rewards and probably saved his job, it's unfair to suggest it's the only reason the Whites are surging clear of the relegation zone. Expected Goals data already suggested Leeds should have had more points, but profligacy in attack was costing them dearly.

Leeds ground out a goalless draw at Liverpool last time out, extending their unbeaten streak in the league to six matches and leaving them seven points above the dropzone. Having secured recent draws at Sunderland at Liverpool, Leeds now get to return to an Elland Road that is becoming something of a fortress at this level. Only Tottenham and Aston Villa have won there this season, and Leeds were perhaps unfortunate in both of those defeats.

One of the big drivers of the Leeds improvement has been the form of striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The former Everton hitman was denied a winner as a substitute at Anfield by an offside flag, having scored in his previous six league appearances. Keeping the 28-year-old fit will be of paramount importance, and so far, Farke's handling of his minutes is working.

Leeds will be without Ethan Ampadu after he picked up a fifth booking at Anfield, so Ao Tanaka could come into midfield, or Brenden Aaronson could drop a bit deeper to accommodate the return of Calvert-Lewin to the starting XI. Sean Longstaff, Joe Rodon and Daniel James are still sidelined by injury.

Downbeat Amorim doing himself few favours

Not only is Manchester United boss Ruben Amorim struggling to achieve the consistency demanded by the club's fans and ultimately by his superiors, he is adding to his own difficulties with a stream of PR gaffes. Former United midfielder Christian Eriksen recently admitted that Amorim declaring last season's team to be "possibly the worst in Manchester United's history" was a deeply unhelpful headline-grabber, and this term the former Sporting boss just seems to lurch from faux pas to faux pas.

Picking a needless media fight with United fans keen to see academy products thrive seemed bizarre, as did talking up his willingness to change formation, only to revert to his tried and trusted shape for a truly dismal 1-1 draw at home to the bottom club Wolves. Now Amorim has made an early declaration that United won't make any January signings, a statement that will surely deepen the gloom. Was this designed to put pressure on INEOS to free up more funds?

On the pitch, there are actually some positives. The Red Devils are only three points off the top four, and only the top two have scored more top-flight goals. According to understat.com, United are fifth on Expected Points, and they have the third-highest Expected Goals figure in the division.

Perhaps those pluses are currently offset by the list of absentees Amorim is having to deal with. Bryan Mbeumo, Amad and Noussair Mazraoui are still away at AFCON, while Harry Maguire, Matthijs de Ligt, Kobbie Mainoo, Mason Mount and most importantly skipper Bruno Fernandes are all injured.

Leeds can punish depleted visitors

Leeds are on form, they are scoring goals (14 in the last seven league matches), and they are facing a Manchester United side stretched thin by injuries and other absences. The Leeds fans have been waiting a couple of years to face Manchester United again, and even though it's a lunchtime kick-off the atmosphere should be terrific.

Cunha combo is worth considering

With Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes out of the picture, it falls upon summer signing Matheus Cunha to carry the fight, and he has become incredibly trigger-happy in recent games. Across his last six Premier League starts the Brazilian has had a staggering 30 shots at an average of five per game.

We can back Cunha to have four shots, one of which will need to be on target, and we'll throw in the Brazilian to be fouled to take the Bet Builder to 13/10. Cunha has been fouled at least once in 14 of his 16 Premier League matches this term.

Now read Kev's European tips column here!

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