Leeds United’s survival maths, is a point per game enough? | OneFootball

Leeds United are tracking the point-per-game benchmark for Premier League safety, but whether 38 points proves sufficient varies by season. According to yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk, this review looks across the last 25 seasons, excluding goal difference, by adding one point to each campaign’s third-bottom tally.

Daniel Farke’s fifth-bottom side lost 4-0 to title favourites Arsenal at Elland Road last weekend, their second league defeat in 11. They remain on 26 points from 24 matches, two ahead of a point-per-game pace, having previously lost only one of their last 10.

Farke often stresses staying on a point-per-game course across the season, believing that return would more or less keep Leeds safe. The question is whether fewer than 38 could suffice, or if more might be required in their first season back in the top flight.

In 2024-25, third-bottom Leicester City were relegated on 25 points, so 26 would have been enough. In 2023-24, third-bottom Luton Town went down on 26, making 27 the safety mark. In 2022-23, Leicester finished third-bottom on 34, so 35 was needed.

In 2021-22, Burnley were relegated on 35, with fourth-bottom Leeds staying up on 38, so 36 was the line. In 2020-21, Fulham dropped with 28, making 29 sufficient. In 2019-20, Bournemouth fell with 34, so 35 would have kept a side up.

The thresholds highlight why Leeds aim to maintain that pace, even if the bar shifts slightly from season to season.

Source: yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk