Mapping Out Argentina’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory | OneFootball

If Argentina were to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, who would they have to beat? We’ve had a go at mapping out their potential route to the World Cup final on 19 July in New Jersey.

Argentina head into the 2026 World Cup as reigning champions following their penalty-shootout victory over France in the 2022 final in Qatar. The last team to retain the men’s World Cup title was Argentina’s fierce rivals, Brazil, way back in 1962.

We can’t predict the future, but with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can at least give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let’s establish the ‘what if’ scenarios and map out Argentina’s route to the World Cup final this time around.

So here we go. How can Argentina win the World Cup yet again in 2026?

Group StageGroup J vs Algeria, Austria and Jordan

Argentina have been placed in Group J alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan. On paper, it should be a routine journey to the knockout stages for Lionel Scaloni’s side.

There is the fact that three of the last four World Cup defending champions have been knocked out in the group stages (Italy 2010, Spain 2014, Germany 2018), which could worry Argentina, but this year’s expanded tournament means just 16 of the 48 teams leave the tournament before the knockout stages, so that feels unlikely.

The Opta supercomputer agrees with that statement, too. In fact, across its 10,000 pre-tournament simulations, only Spain (98.6%) qualified for the last 32 more often than Argentina did (96.9%). Spain were also the only team to win their group (75.5%) more often than the Argentines (72.6%) across those sims.

Should Argentina win Group J, as expected, they would face the runners-up in Group H. Based on the Opta supercomputer’s current projections, that would be Uruguay.

Last 32 (96.9% chance of making it this far)Argentina vs Uruguay

A meeting with Uruguay on 3 July in Miami Gardens would await Argentina in the last 32. There’s no doubt that this would be a tricky tie for the World Cup holders, but they have a good recent record against their fellow South American opponents.

Argentina have lost just one of their last nine meetings with Uruguay, that coming in the qualifiers for these finals at the Bombonera (2-0) in November 2023. In seven of the eight most recent encounters, Uruguay have failed to score.

This victory would set up a last-16 clash in Atlanta on 7 July.

Last 16 (63.2% chance of making it this far)Argentina vs Türkiye

Türkiye (the most likely second-place team in Group D) would likely face Egypt (the most likely second-place finishers in Group G) in a last-32 tie in Arlington, just hours before Argentina’s last-32 match.

Based on the Opta supercomputer’s current projections, Türkiye would be the most likely opponents for Argentina in this round, and it would be the first time that the two nations have ever met in a men’s international fixture.

The Turks would present an awkward hurdle for Argentina, but it should be one that they are able to pass.

Quarter-Finals (45.7% chance of making it this far)Argentina vs Portugal

Now this would be the clash that everyone has waited forever to see: Lionel Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo at the FIFA World Cup for the first time ever.

In the most recent encounter between Argentina and Portugal, in an international friendly back in November 2014, Messi and Ronaldo started but both came off at half-time with the scores locked at 0-0.

In the only other international encounter between the pair, in February 2011, Ronaldo scored for Portugal but was outdone by Messi who scored an 89th-minute match-winning penalty in a 2-1 victory.

It would be the first encounter between Argentina and Portugal in a World Cup, with the South Americans doing well against European sides on the way to glory in 2022. Back then, they beat Poland in the group stage before knocking out the Netherlands on penalties in the quarter-final, Croatia 3-0 in the semi-final and then winning the World Cup final versus France 4-2 on penalties after a 3-3 draw.

Messi’s World Cup journey would continue, but he’d finish off Ronaldo’s in the process.

Semi-Finals (30.6% chance of making it this far)Argentina vs Spain

A clash with Spain would await Argentina in the semi-finals, back in Atlanta, where they defeated Turkey in the last 16.

It’ll be a mouthwatering clash between the reigning champions of Europe and the South American title holders, with Spain having won the last European Championship and Argentina prevailing at Copa América in 2024.

Spain are the pre-tournament favourites to lift the 2026 World Cup, doing so in 16.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, but Argentina have progressed to the final through each of their five previous World Cup semi-finals, doing so in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022, when they eventually beat France in the final.

They could add a sixth here by knocking out the European champions and progressing to a second successive World Cup final.

Final (18.3% chance of making it this far)Argentina vs France

Should the group stage go as expected and both Argentina and France win their respective groups, they would enter opposite halves of the knockout bracket, meaning they wouldn’t be able to meet until the final on 19 July at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.

It would be a repeat of the 2022 final in Qatar, making this the first time ever that two teams have come up against one another in back-to-back men’s World Cup finals. It’d also mean that five of the last six World Cup finals have had at least one of France or Argentina in them.

France (12.8%) may be slightly favoured by the Opta supercomputer to win the 2026 World Cup compared to Argentina (10.4%), but in this imagined world, Messi not only extends his record of making the most appearances in World Cup history but also becomes the first captain to ever lift the trophy in consecutive tournaments.

All prediction numbers correct as of 5 June 2026

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