Most valuable player outside the ‘Big 5’ is at FC Porto | OneFootball

Victor Froholdt is the most valuable player currently playing outside the so-called Big Five leagues, according to a study published this Wednesday by the Football Observatory (CIES). The FC Porto midfielder tops a list with a strong presence from the Portuguese league, in which Oskar Pietuszewski also stands out, and is valued very close to his own release clause. As for the method used, the organization says it is “particularly robust and efficient.”

The findings released by the Football Observatory place Victor Froholdt at the top among footballers not playing in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 or Bundesliga. The Denmark international, signed by FC Porto in the summer of 2025, heads a valuation that reinforces the presence of the Dragons and other Portuguese clubs among the most highly valued assets outside Europe’s five main leagues.

At the center of the study is Froholdt’s valuation, with his market value set by CIES at €83.7 million. The player joined FC Porto from Copenhagen in a transfer worth around €20 million, plus €2 million in bonuses.

The Dane signed a contract valid until June 2030 and was protected by an €85 million release clause. The estimate now presented by the organization therefore comes very close to that contractual limit.

CIES’s reading places Froholdt in a unique position outside the Big Five and highlights FC Porto’s investment. The gap between the transfer fee and the current valuation gives even greater weight to the midfielder’s place in the study.

FC Porto, however, is not limited to first place. Oskar Pietuszewski appears in seventh position in the top 10, with an estimated market value of €60.7 million, giving the reigning national champions a second presence among the top ten.

Further down, already outside that group, two other Dragons players appear. William Gomes is valued at €50.3 million, while Diogo Costa comes immediately after, with an estimated value of €49.3 million.

The picture drawn by the study therefore reveals FC Porto representation that goes beyond Froholdt’s individual prominence. There are four FC Porto players among the names mentioned, with two of them placed in the top 10.

The Portuguese presence extends to their rivals. Benfica places Vangelis Pavlidis immediately behind Froholdt, with a value of €65 million, and Gianluca Prestianni in eighth place, valued at €57.9 million.

Outside the top ten, Tomás Araújo appears with a market value of €50.1 million and Georgiy Sudakov with €49.4 million. The Eagles therefore have four players among the names highlighted by the study.

Sporting is also represented twice in the top 10. Luis Suárez occupies fourth place, with a valuation of €62.9 million, and Gonçalo Inácio is ninth, with his transfer value estimated at €57 million.

Although Sporting’s players appear below the highest-ranked members of FC Porto and Benfica, the numbers confirm the weight of the three Portuguese clubs in the ranking. Among the top ten, six footballers play in the domestic league.

To arrive at the estimates, CIES says it considered five categories of variables. In the explanation published on its official platforms, the organization points to factors linked to the timing of the transfer, the contract, sporting performance and each player’s profile.

Among the elements identified are the “period (season or year of the transfer, etc.),” “work (contract duration, previous fees, etc.),” “performance (goals, minutes, etc.)” and “player characteristics (age, position, etc.).”

The model thus seeks to combine the contractual and economic framework with usage and individual characteristics. It is this combination that underpins the values assigned to Froholdt and the other players mentioned.

The Football Observatory itself nevertheless admits that a statistical estimate does not necessarily reproduce the final price of a transfer. CIES describes the model as “particularly robust and efficient,” but notes that “some of the prices paid by clubs differ significantly from the estimated values.”

To illustrate that gap, the organization recalls the transfer of Hulk, former FC Porto player, from Zenit to Shanghai Port in 2016 for €56 million. The case serves to show how the buyers’ economic context can go beyond the historical parameters built into the model.

“He was negotiated for a price almost four times higher than estimated by our statistical model,” it reads. “Part of the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that Chinese clubs had not previously been very active in the transfer market. Consequently, their economic potential integrated into the model, calculated on the basis of past transactions, was outdated”

The caveat does not remove Froholdt from the top, but it frames the scope of the valuation: it is an estimate built from statistical variables, not a guaranteed price in a future negotiation. Even so, the €83.7 million puts the FC Porto player as the study’s main reference outside the Big Five.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.