No River or Boca, Brazil's clearest path to 8th Libertadores | OneFootball

South American football has reached a historic point. Since 2019, when Flamengo ended a 38-year drought by beating River Plate in the final in Lima, no club outside Brazil has lifted the Copa Libertadores trophy. Seven straight editions, seven Brazilian champions: Flamengo (2019, 2022 and 2025), Palmeiras (2020 and 2021), Fluminense (2023) and Botafogo (2024). The historic tie with Argentina, which entered 2018 with 25 titles to Brazil’s 18, has been achieved, and the score is now 25 to 25. The 2026 edition begins the round of 16 in August with six Brazilian clubs among the sixteen teams that advanced, and without River Plate or Boca Juniors in the knockout stage for the first time since 2014.

The group stage revealed a Flamengo side that finished the first phase with the best campaign of all 32 participants: 16 points in six matches, five wins, one draw and a goal difference of +12. No club from any country came close. Brazilian dominance is also reflected in the overall table, since six of the sixteen teams in the round of 16 are Brazilian, the largest contingent from a single country in the knockout stage. For those following the competition and looking to bet on the Libertadores, this context is the most relevant starting point for evaluating the available markets. For those looking for Libertadores predictions or wanting to understand who has the best chance of winning the Libertadores at this stage of the knockout rounds, Flamengo’s group-stage campaign is the most relevant data available.

The knockout stage begins on August 11 with the first-leg matches, and the return legs take place the following week. The most talked-about matchup is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo, two Brazilian clubs meeting in the round of 16 in a clash worthy of a semifinal. Other notable matchups include Fluminense against Independiente Rivadavia (ARG), Palmeiras against Cerro Porteño (PAR), Mirassol against LDU (ECU), and Corinthians against Rosario Central (ARG). To follow the markets for each matchup in real time, Stake.bet.br keeps updated odds for every knockout-stage match.

Flamengo: best group-stage campaign, but with major absences

Leonardo Jardim’s Flamengo reached the round of 16 unbeaten and with impressive numbers. Five wins and one draw, 14 goals scored and only 2 conceded in Group A, which included Estudiantes, Independiente Medellín and Cusco. The only slip-up was a 1-1 draw in La Plata against Estudiantes in the third round, a match that saw Arrascaeta leave still in the first half with a right shoulder injury. The Uruguayan No. 10 and key piece in Jardim’s system was substituted before the 20-minute mark and went straight to the hospital for imaging tests.

Arrascaeta’s injury is Flamengo’s most concrete concern for the knockout stage. In addition, tensions are well known between football director José Boto and the club’s medical department, in the weeks leading up to the start of the knockout rounds, over disagreements regarding player treatment and workload management in a schedule that combines the Brasileirão and the Libertadores. Jardim, who stayed unbeaten in the group stage despite the conflicts, will face the challenge of keeping the squad united in a direct clash against Artur Jorge’s Cruzeiro.

The Cruzeiro vs Flamengo matchup in the round of 16 is unprecedented in Libertadores history and carries added symbolism. Artur Jorge, Cruzeiro’s coach, was the manager who led Botafogo to the title in 2024. He knows better than anyone the mechanisms that make a Brazilian club win the Libertadores, and he will apply that knowledge against the most successful club in the competition in recent years. Cruzeiro finished the group stage second in Group D with 11 points, after knocking out Boca Juniors (who finished third and were eliminated) and losing only to Universidad Católica of Chile. Fifty years after their first continental title in 1976, the Minas Gerais club is trying to get past the round of 16 for the first time in 29 years.

Palmeiras: second place in the group with a squad built for August

Palmeiras finished the group stage second in Group F with 11 points, behind Paraguay’s Cerro Porteño. The campaign included one defeat and one draw against the group leaders, as well as a draw with Junior Barranquilla in the opener. Abel Ferreira, who has already won the Libertadores twice with the club, faces the same opponent in the round of 16, in a clash that reproduces the group dynamic but now in a knockout format.

Palmeiras have structural characteristics that set them apart from Flamengo for the knockout stage: greater squad depth, a coach with more experience in the tournament, and a tradition of performances that improve in the decisive rounds. Abel Ferreira has never been eliminated in the quarterfinals or semifinals of the Libertadores. In his two titles (2020 and 2021), he reached the final and won. In the 2025 runner-up finish, he lost only in the final to Flamengo itself, in a match played at the same Estadio Centenario in Montevideo that will host this edition’s final.

The return of the Paraguayan trio (Gómez, Sosa and midfielder Mauricio) after the World Cup, with confidence high from Paraguay’s historic run to the quarterfinals before being eliminated by France, strengthens the squad at a time when the competition demands the highest level. Flaco López, the club’s top scorer with 14 goals and 8 assists in the first half of the year, is the name opponents fear most in the knockout stage.

The absence of the Argentinians

Boca Juniors’ elimination in the group stage and River Plate’s absence since the qualifying phase represent Argentina’s weakest moment in the Libertadores in at least a decade. Boca finished third in Group D with 7 points, after losing to Barcelona of Ecuador (1-0) and to Universidad Católica (1-0 in the final round, the match that eliminated them). CNN Brasil reported that the club fired coach Claudio Úbeda after the elimination, in a decision that sums up the crisis in Argentine football on the continent at this moment.

River Plate did not even qualify for the group stage. The last time Argentina’s two biggest clubs were both absent from the knockout stage was in 2014. The vacuum left by the two Buenos Aires giants directly benefits the Brazilian clubs, who now find themselves without their most difficult historic opponent in the decisive rounds. Before the tournament began, analyst Eugênio Leal had already pointed to the scenario: “Brazil is getting further and further ahead of the other countries in terms of the Libertadores. And this year River isn’t playing. That’s why only Boca Juniors appears as a candidate from outside the country.” With Boca’s early exit in the group stage, eliminated after defeat to Universidad Católica in the final round, that vacuum deepened even more than the analyst had anticipated.

Seven titles, seven different stories

The sequence of seven consecutive Brazilian titles in the Libertadores is even more impressive when analyzed edition by edition, because it was not built by a single dominant club, but by four different clubs.

In 2019, Flamengo beat River Plate 2-1 in the final in Lima, with two goals by Gabriel Barbosa in stoppage time after trailing. It was the club’s first continental title in 38 years and the first sign that something structural had changed in Brazilian football. In 2020, Palmeiras beat Santos 1-0 in an all-Brazilian final played at the Maracanã, with a goal by Breno Lopes in the final minute of extra time. In 2021, the same Palmeiras returned to the final and beat Flamengo 2-1 at the Centenario in Montevideo, with Deyverson’s famous extra-time goal, in a clash that showed the hegemony belonged not to one club but to an entire footballing nation.

In 2022, Flamengo reclaimed the title by beating Athletico-PR 1-0 in another all-Brazilian final, in Guayaquil, Ecuador. In 2023, Fluminense surprised everyone by defeating Boca Juniors 2-1 at the Maracanã, in one of the most emotional finals in recent history, with a goal by Germán Cano in the second half of extra time. In 2024, Artur Jorge’s Botafogo beat Atlético Mineiro 3-1 in Buenos Aires, in a final that consolidated the winning cycle and revealed the coach who now leads Cruzeiro in the round of 16 of this edition. In 2025, Leonardo Jardim’s Flamengo closed the most recent cycle by beating Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras 1-0 at the Centenario, in a clash that could realistically be repeated as the final in November.

Five of the seven finals were all-Brazilian. The only intruders were River Plate in 2019 and Boca Juniors in 2023, precisely the two clubs absent from this edition. The streak is no coincidence, but the result of growing investment, professional structures, and a calendar that prepared Brazilian clubs to compete at a high level for extended periods.

The remaining (non-Brazilian) contenders

With the traditional Argentine sides absent from the knockout stage, the most relevant outside contenders are Independiente Rivadavia (ARG), Rosario Central (ARG), Cerro Porteño (PAR), and Independiente del Valle (ECU). Independiente Rivadavia finished the group stage with 16 points, level with Flamengo but with an inferior goal difference. The Mendoza club, playing only its second Libertadores in history, topped Group C comfortably and will face Fluminense again in the round of 16, the runner-up from the same group, in a draw that exceptionally matched the top two teams from the same group. Rosario Central finished with 13 points in Group H, with a solid campaign that included only one defeat.

Paraguay’s Cerro Porteño, who topped Palmeiras’ group with 13 points, are the toughest opponent Verdão could have faced in the round of 16. The Asunción club has a recent history of solid Libertadores campaigns and knows the opponent’s characteristics well after the group-stage meetings.

The most relevant markets for the knockout stage

For those following the Libertadores with an eye on betting, the knockout stage offers more varied markets and better value than the group stage, because the context of each matchup is more defined and information about squads, injuries, and recent form is more available. For that reason, many bettors also follow Libertadores predictions before placing their bets, comparing analysis and statistics to identify opportunities in different markets.

The outright winner market has Flamengo as the favorite on most platforms, a reflection of the best group-stage campaign. Palmeiras appear second, with Abel Ferreira as the most experienced coach in the competition among all the qualified teams. The “Brazilian club to win” market (bets covering any club from the country, not a specific one) offers compressed Libertadores odds that reflect the historic hegemony, but it can still have value depending on the platform.

For the round of 16 specifically, Cruzeiro vs Flamengo is the most balanced of the eight matchups. The two clubs know each other well from the Brasileirão, which reduces the adaptation advantage that foreign teams sometimes face against Brazilian sides. The aggregate result market for this matchup is the one generating the highest volume of Libertadores betting in Brazil, and the odds for an aggregate draw (which would lead to a penalty shootout) tend to offer value because it is an underestimated scenario in the opening prices.

Top scorer of the competition is a long-term market that Brazilian bettors usually ignore in favor of immediate-result bets, but it can be profitable. Palmeiras’ Flaco López and Flamengo’s Pedro are the names most likely to lead the scoring charts, with opening odds that still do not fully reflect the first-half performances of both players. Igor Thiago, of Brentford, is not in the competition, which removes one name who could have been relevant in this market.

Schedule of the upcoming matches

For those planning to bet on the Libertadores throughout the rest of the knockout stage, recent history clearly favors Brazil, but the details of each matchup are still what define a well-informed bet on the Libertadores champion.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.