Opta Predicts Brentford vs Liverpool: Ekitike can star in 8/1 bet builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Brentford trip will test LIverpool

Liverpool returned to winning ways in the Champions League and now face a tricky trip to west London to face Keith Andrews' Premier League battlers. Opta crunch the stats and the odds to predict which way it'll go...

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Tough trip for defending champions Liverpool

Liverpool snapped their four-game losing streak in style on Wednesday, coming from behind to earn a dominant 5-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in the UEFA Champions League.

Hugo Ekitike, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai were all on target in Germany, with the Reds' attack finding form after Arne Slot's bold decision to bench Mohamed Salah.

While that result came as a major relief to Slot, his team are also in desperate need of a Premier League victory, having fallen behind in the title race following three straight top-flight defeats.

The Reds approach MD9 four points adrift of leaders Arsenal, and a visit to Brentford - who have won two of their last three games and only lost once at the Gtech Community Stadium under Keith Andrews - will be no easy task.

Ahead of Saturday's late kick-off, we dive into the Opta data to pick out some of the best Bet Builder selections.

Frankfurt win can be Liverpool turning point

Liverpool have lost their last three Premier League games, as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 39 combined (27 wins, nine draws).

They have not suffered four straight defeats in the competition since February 2021, while they have not endured a four-game losing run within the first nine matches of a season since 1993/94.

The Reds have also lost five of their last eight away games in the Premier League dating back to the end of their title-winning 2024/25 campaign, as many losses as they suffered in their previous 43 such fixtures in the competition.

While they are now in danger of losing three straight league games on their travels for the first time since doing so in January and February 2023, those statistics also highlight how rare it is to see Liverpool struggling like this, and their supporters will hope normality is likely to return sooner rather than later.

Indeed, despite their recent woes, Liverpool are strong favourites to come away with three points on Saturday, at a price of 8/13 with Betfair's 90 Minute Guarantee.

Brentford are 16/5 for victory, though they have only ever beaten Liverpool once in the Premier League and have lost their last five meetings with the Reds.

The draw is 5/2, and Brentford have avoided defeat in four of their five competitive games under Andrews at the Gtech (two wins, two draws), only losing to Manchester City, so those who expect Liverpool's struggles to continue might be tempted that the Bees are 11/10 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market.

However, Liverpool's midweek victory will have inspired renewed faith in their prospects for many punters, as they utterly dominated last season's third-place Bundesliga finishers.

The Reds fired off 18 shots to Eintracht's four, amassing 3.21 expected goals (xG) and hitting the target 14 times - only Real Madrid (15 against Marseille) and Bayern Munich (15 versus Pafos) have registered more shots on target in a UCL game this term.

The Opta supercomputer also makes Liverpool favourites, handing them a 54% win probability, and after Slot appeared to hit upon a winning formula in midweek, the Reds will want to keep their momentum going versus a team they typically fare well against.

Value to be found in goals markets

The short price around a Liverpool win will lead punters to seek additional ways of adding value to their Bet Builders, and backing goals seems to be the simplest solution.

Seven of Liverpool's last eight matches in all competitions have contained goals at both ends, with the Reds struggling to provide adequate protection to Van Dijk and Konate in the early stages of the season.

Of course, they are also without first-choice goalkeeper Alisson, leaving Giorgi Mamardashvili to deputise, and the Georgian is still awaiting his first clean sheet. New full-backs Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez have not convinced up to this point, either, and the latter was dropped for Andy Robertson against Eintracht.

It is 8/15 for Both Teams to Score, with a Liverpool win combined with goals at both ends bringing up a price of 2/1.

BTTS has been a winning bet on three of the last four occasions when Liverpool have visited the Gtech in the Premier League, and Brentford have scored in seven of their eight top-flight games this term, only being shut out by City.

The Bees' underlying attacking metrics are also impressive, as their total of 11.0 expected goals (xG) is the eighth-best in the Premier League this season, ranking only marginally behind Liverpool's 13.8 xG (fifth-best).

Only Burnley (60), West Ham (76) and Sunderland (78) have attempted fewer than Brentford's 79 shots, but they have hit the target 32 times, only four fewer than the Reds.

Brentford are 1/3 to get on the scoresheet and 7/4 to score over 1.5 goals. Four of the Bees' last six league games have contained over 2.5 goals, which is available at 1/2, while two of their last four have contained over 3.5, which is 13/10.

Liverpool, for their part, have seen over 2.5 goals scored in seven of their last eight matches, including each of their last three, so that could be the standout selection.

While Brentford have looked good going forward, only five teams have conceded more goals (12) or faced more shots (101) than them this season, with the Bees giving up 10.1 expected goals against (xGA).

Liverpool have given up a marginally lower total, at 9.3, but the significant gap between their xGA figures and those of leaders Arsenal (4.8) shows their defence is far from elite.

The Reds reminded us in Germany that they have enough firepower to blow any team out of the water, but their defence remains vulnerable and Brentford have more than enough quality to cause them problems.

Liverpool have won eight games in all competitions this season, and six of those victories have contained over 2.5 goals, so the data suggests we can expect plenty more goalmouth action.

Ekitike can shine again

Following last week's dire defeat to Manchester United, Slot faced calls to rejig his frontline and drop underperforming stars Salah and Alexander Isak.

While Isak did start at Deutsche Bank Park, he came off at half-time with a groin injury that could threaten his prospects of being involved this weekend. The Swede, who has scored on all four of his previous league appearances against Brentford, is 1/1 to score anytime, but including him in a Bet Builder could be a risky call.

Salah started on the bench and was not brought on until the 74th minute, with Federico Chiesa entering the fray before him.

Having tied the single-season record for Premier League goal involvements in 2024/25, Salah has - by almost every metric - looked a shadow of his former self in 2025/26.

Salah is averaging fewer goals (0.25 to 0.77), xG (0.3 to 0.68), shots (1.89 to 3.46), shots on target (0.76 to 1.63), touches in the opposition box (6.18 to 10.5), assists (0.25 to 0.48) and chances created (2.02 to 2.37) per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, compared to last.

Salah is 11/10 to register two shots on target or 4/6 to fire off at least four shots, but considering his per-90 averages this season, something significant would have to change.

Of course, Salah remains a class act and it is little surprise to see him leading the goalscorer markets, priced at 1/1 to net or 8/13 to either score or assist.

And boosting his cause is a fine record against Brentford. He has seven goal involvements (six goals, one assist) in seven league appearances against the Bees, averaging a goal every 96.5 minutes against them. Watford (every 76 minutes) and Bournemouth (87) are the only teams he has faced at least seven times in the competition while averaging fewer minutes per goal.

Isak's injury could mean Salah returns to the starting lineup at the Gtech, but perhaps a more popular selection could be Ekitike, who showed searing pace to break in behind and score Liverpool's equaliser against his former club in midweek.

Ekitike's six goals in all competitions this season are at least two more than any other Liverpool player, and his shot conversion rate of 23.1% is also the best in the Reds' squad (minimum 10 shots attempted).

Ekitike is 5/4 to get on the scoresheet again and 9/2 to get the game's first goal. Given the uncertainty around the make-up of Slot's attack, it may be worth getting behind a player who has already played in various positions across the frontline this season.

Ekitike does have an assist to his name this campaign, and given that he could also be an option on the left flank if Slot rests Gakpo, a price of 8/11 for the Frenchman to score or assist offers greater security.

Gakpo had an eventful outing against Man Utd last Sunday, as he scored, hit the woodwork three times and missed a huge headed chance late on. Only Erling Haaland (34) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (28) have attempted more shots than Gakpo's 21 in the Premier League this season, though he has only hit the target five times.

With that in mind, a price of 11/10 for Gakpo to attempt four or more shots could add value to a Bet Builder, while he is 13/8 to get at least two on target or 2/1 to get on the scoresheet.

Brentford will also be led by one of the league's most lethal strikers, in Igor Thiago. Only Haaland (11) and Antoine Semenyo (six) have more goals in the competition this season than the Brazilian, who moved to five goals for the campaign by netting the opener in Monday's 2-0 win at West Ham, also having another strike ruled out for a very close offside call.

Thiago is 2/1 to score anytime and 13/2 to net first, which he has done on three occasions already this season - only Haaland (five) has done so more often.

He is another intriguing potential selection in the shots markets, having hit the target with exactly half of his league shots in 2025/26 (nine of 18). Excluding blocks, he has a shooting accuracy of 69.3%, and no player has attempted at least as many shots as him while being that accurate.

Thiago is 4/9 to register at least one shot on target and 2/1 to manage two or more. The Bees frontman has only failed to register a shot on target in two of his eight league games this season and has hit the target in each of his last four, doing so three times against West Ham - it is 13/2 for him to repeat that feat.

He also had six shots - all from inside the area - against the Hammers, and is available at 10/11 to attempt three or more shots overall.

After Liverpool duo Federico Chiesa at 9/4 and Rio Ngumoha at 23/10, Kevin Schade is the next Brentford player in the anytime goalscorer betting at 13/5, while former Reds midfielder Fabio Carvalho follows at 16/5.

Of course, there is another ex-Liverpool player in the Brentford ranks, with Jordan Henderson earning plaudits for his early-season performances in the Bees' engine room.

The 2019/20 title-winning captain is 14/1 to score against his old club, though he has not scored a Premier League goal since December 1, 2021, against Everton. He has played 65 EPL games and 4,264 minutes without scoring since that date.

Further opportunities to be had in fouls markets

One would imagine Henderson is more likely to find himself in trouble with the referee than on the scoresheet, and he is 3/1 to commit at least two fouls.

That would represent an uptick on the 0.95 fouls per 90 minutes he has averaged this season, but Liverpool will likely dominate possession for long periods, making it a potentially fruitful pick. Henderson is 7/2 to receive a card.

The two Brentford players to average the most fouls committed per 90 this season (at least 300 minutes played) are both attackers, in Dango Outtara (2.31) and Thiago (2.2).

They are 8/15 and 4/9, respectively, to concede two or more, and the latter could be a particularly intriguing selection, given the likelihood of Brentford adopting a direct approach with him as the focal point. He is 13/8 to commit three fouls.

For Liverpool, Gakpo has won more fouls per 90 minutes (2.09) than any other player in either squad, and he won multiple fouls for the fourth time this season against United.

The Dutchman is 4/5 to be fouled on at least two occasions and 23/10 to win three or more. Brentford right-back Michael Kayode - who could be Gakpo's direct opponent - is 23/10 to commit a pair of fouls.

Gakpo also committed five fouls against the Red Devils, showing signs of frustration as Liverpool's losing steak continued. That brought his per-90 average in the Premier League this season up to 1.81, and he is 6/4 to commit at least two here.

Bet Builder

Based on the above, the following Bet Builder featuring our favourite selections is available at 8/1 on the sportsbook.