Opta Predicts Liverpool v Real Madrid: Back Salah and Mbappe in 8-1 bet builder | OneFootball

Liverpool finally snapped their Premier League losing streak as they beat Aston Villa last time out, but there's little time to reflect on that victory with a massive clash against Real Madrid up next.

Mohamed Salah scored on Saturday to match Wayne Rooney's Premier League record of 276 goal involvements for one club, while Ryan Gravenberch was also on target.

But now, before a huge domestic contest with title rivals Manchester City, focus will turn to the UEFA Champions League, with Xabi Alonso - a European champion with the Reds back in 2005 - returning to Anfield for the second time in as many seasons.

Alonso's first return to his former stomping ground resulted in a 4-0 loss for Bayer Leverkusen last term, but the Spaniard's Real Madrid team should present this Liverpool side with a much sterner test on Tuesday.

Madrid hold a five-point lead at the top of LaLiga, after a thumping 4-0 win over Valencia, and they have won all three of their Champions League games so far, sitting five places and three points ahead of Liverpool in the 36-team standings.

It promises to be a thriller, and by diving into the Opta data, we have picked out some of our favourite selections to make up a Bet Builder.

Close contest expected as Liverpool-Madrid rivalry reignites

Liverpool and Real Madrid have faced each other on 12 previous occasions in the European Cup/Champions League.

After winning the first three between 1981 and 2009, Liverpool have only won one of the last nine (D1 L7).

In fact, this is the eighth time that these teams have met in the competition since the start of the 2017-18 season, with Madrid winning five of those seven fixtures.

However, Liverpool's sole win in that run was recent, coming in November last year when they claimed a 2-0 triumph thanks to second-half goals from Alexis Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo.

Liverpool are usually formidable at Anfield in the initial stage of the Champions League too. They have won 20 of their last 22 home UCL group stage games (D1 L1), including winning each of their last 12.

However, three of Liverpool's seven home group defeats have come versus against sides (one each v Barcelona, Valencia and Madrid).

With an uncertain picture as two continental heavyweights collide, Opta's supercomputer is expecting an extremely tight contest. The Reds are given a 38.7% win probability to Madrid's 37.2%, with a 24.1% chance of a draw.

There is also no clear favourite on the Betfair Sportsbook. Liverpool can be backed at  and Madrid at 11/8, with the draw available for punters at 23/10.

Madrid certainly come into the game with the better form, having lost just one game all season. Liverpool, on the other hand, have lost six of their last eight matches.

But with Liverpool having home advantage, the draw is certainly worthy of consideration.

Punters with a slight conviction either way may consider utilising the double chance market to be a solid shout when putting together a bet builder. Liverpool to avoid defeat is 4/9, while it is 1/2 for Madrid to either win or draw.

Expect plenty of shots at Anfield

Both Madrid and Liverpool have scored eight goals across their opening three Champions League games this season, with the Reds conceding four and Los Blancos just one.

However, the last two meetings between these teams have both been won to nil - indeed, the only Liverpool-Madrid fixture in the last five encounters to feature goals from both teams came in 5-2 win for the Spanish giants at Anfield in February 2023.

Both teams can be backed to win to nil at 5/1, so if recent history is anything to go by then that could be an interesting angle for some punters, albeit an optimistic one with the quality of the attacks on show.

Conversely, both teams to score is 4/11, while BTTS - No comes in at 21/10. Liverpool can be backed to win with both teams scoring at 11/4, while Madrid can be backed in the same way at 11/4. A score draw offers 10/3.

The market is expecting goals, with over 2.5 goals priced at just 2/5, while the under comes in at 9/5. It is more finely balanced at 3.5 goals, with a price of 19/20 for over and the under available at 4/5.

Madrid have already scored 34 goals in all competitions this season, a tally that could be even higher had they matched their expected goals (xG) total of 36.5. Liverpool, meanwhile, have netted 30 times from 28.5 xG.

Betting on goals in the first-half could be an intriguing possibility. Among teams in Europe's top five leagues, just Bayern Munich (31) and Eintracht Frankfurt (20) have scored more first-half goals across all competitions in 2025/26 than Madrid (17), while Liverpool have netted 14, but have also conceded 11 such goals.

Liverpool can be backed at 13/10 to score in the first half, with Madrid at 5/4.

It is 2/1 for the first-half to feature more goals than the second, and 1/1 for there to be more goals after the interval. A tie can be backed at 16/5.

The Reds have shipped 13 second-half goals and scored 16, while Madrid have scored 17 times after the interval, conceding on six occasions.

There is also some value in the team shots markets.

Madrid have had the most UCL shots on target this season (37), having 10+ in all three games (15 v Marseille, 12 v Kairat Almaty, 10 v Juventus). Since 2003-04, the only team to do so in four in a row are Los Blancos themselves in the 2013-14 campaign.

Only Bayern (300) can better Madrid's tally of 292 shots in all competitions this season, with Alonso's team also ranking second for shots on target (140). That is an average of 10 shots on target per game.

It is 8/1 for Madrid to continue that remarkable average, but bearing in mind Liverpool have only faced 10+ shots on target twice since 2003-04, and never at Anfield, and are averaging only 3.9 shots on target faced per game this season, it may make sense to be slightly more cautious with that number, despite Madrid's magnificent attack.

Going the other way, Liverpool have had 240 shots, more than any other Premier League side, though only 79 have hit the target (4.9 per game). Five or more SoT for the Reds can be backed at 4/7, with 6+ available at 5/4 and 7+ at 12/5.

Another smart play could be a look at goalkeeper saves. Thibaut Courtois turned in one of the all-time great performances against Liverpool in the 2022 UCL final - Madrid's shot-stopper can be backed at 4/7 for 3+ saves, 7/5 for 4+ and 3/1 for 5+.

Liverpool's goalkeeper is anticipated to be busier, so 3+ saves is a short 3/10, with 4+ at 4/5 and 5+ returning 7/4.

Expect Mbappe magic

Two more goals for Mbappe against Valencia took his total for 2025/26 to 18 - a tally bettered by only Harry Kane (22) among players from Europe's top five leagues across all competitions.

Mbappe leads the way for xG (15.7), too, albeit he drops to third when just counting non-penalty xG, with 10.2, behind Luis Diaz (10.4) and Erling Haaland (12.2).

Mbappe typically thrives in UCL away matches. Of the 10 players with 50+ goals in competition history, Mbappe has the highest percentage scored on the road (53% - 32/60).

The France star netted a hat-trick in his previous away game in the competition (v Kairat on MD2), and now has the joint-most away hat-tricks of any player (three - level with Filippo Inzaghi).

The former Paris Saint-Germain star has scored 13 goals in 11 LaLiga games in 2025/26; only Cristiano Ronaldo (twice) had previously scored 13+ goals in his first 11 matches of a top-flight season for Madrid in the 21st-century.

So Mbappe is in remarkable form, and is 4/1 to be the first goalscorer and 1/1 to net any time, while it is 5/1 for the 26-year-old to score at least twice. An Mbappe hat-trick or more can be backed at 22/1.

No LaLiga player can match Mbappe's 20 goal involvements in all competitions this season, and an Mbappe goal or assist is understandably odds-on at 8/11.

Mbappe has already had 80 shots, with 39 of those on target, an average of 5.7 shots per game and 2.8 on target. He is 1/2 to have 2+ SoT at Anfield, and 7/4 for a least three.

Bullish Bellingham and rejuvenated Salah appeal

After being left out of Thomas Tuchel's England squad in October, Jude Bellingham has shown his quality with some awesome displays in the heart of Madrid's midfield - especially against Barcelona in El Clasico.

Bellingham scored and assisted against Barca and was on target again in the win over Valencia.

He is now set to make his 50th Champions League appearance. At the age of 22 years and 128 days on Tuesday, Bellingham will be the youngest player to hit the milestone in UCL history, surpassing Iker Casillas, who hit 50 games in 2003, not long after Bellingham was born.

Since Bellingham made his Champions League debut in October 2020, no midfielder can match his 27 goal involvements (14 goals, 13 assists).

And Bellingham to attempt three or more shots is available at 10/11.

But Bellingham does have a fiery side and is likely to be in the thick of the action - he is 5/6 to concede 2+ fouls and 3/1 to give away 3+.

Vinicius Junior has been in the headlines after his behaviour in El Clasico, for which he has apologised.

Despite not being the central star of the team like he once was, the Brazil international has still provided nine goal contributions this season (five goals, four assists), ranking second in Madrid's squad along with Arda Guler (three goals, six assists).

Vinicius also enjoys playing against Liverpool. He has netted five UCL goals in as many games against the Reds - more goals than he has scored against any other team in the competition. The winger is 1/1 to score or assist and a price of 9/5 for him to net anytime could be tempting. Backing Vinicius to have 2+ SoT returns 15/8.

No Madrid player, meanwhile, has been fouled as many times as Vinicius (24) this season - he is 8/15 to win 2+ and 6/4 to win 3+.

In-form Guler, meanwhile, could represent value score or assist at 7/4, having developed a superb understanding with Mbappe over the early months of this campaign.

And what of Liverpool's star attackers?

Salah has now netted twice in the space of two games and, while not quite at his best, it will certainly thrill Slot that his talisman is at least making an impact.

The Egyptian has only scored twice in nine UCL games against Madrid, but he is fresh off becoming just the third player in Liverpool's history to reach 250 goals for the club.

Salah to score anytime is 7/5, and backing a brace returns 15/2. To score or assist, he is 5/6. At least two Salah shots on target brings in 15/8, with 6/1 odds for 3+ SoT. It is 8/15 for him to have 3+ shots in total.

Alexander Isak has been absent through injury, so there should be some caution when assessing his price of 5/4 to score, with his status up in the air.

Hugo Ekitike, at 6/4 for an anytime goal, could be a more sensible punt, or perhaps a dabble in the shots on target market would attract, too. The youngster has made his mark regularly this season and is 4/9 for 1+ SoT, 2/1 for 2+ and 13/2 for 3+.

Dominik Szoboszlai, meanwhile, leads Liverpool for shot-ending open-play sequences this term, with 90. He can be picked up at 6/4 to score or assist , while Cody Gakpo, at 12/5 to score and 5/4 to score or assist could be another tempting selection.

Szoboszlai has been playing in a variety of roles and has certainly got stuck in. He has conceded 12 fouls, while he has already been booked three times, with only Conor Bradley (five) receiving more yellow cards for Liverpool this season. The Hungarian is 13/8 to commit 2+ fouls.

Bradley, who could be up against Vinicius or Mbappe drifting out to the left, is 1/1 to concede 2+ free-kicks and 7/2 for 3+.

Alonso is not the only returning Anfield hero, either.

Now read Paul Higham's Tuesday Champions League tips for every match