State leagues over in 2027? The risk to Carioca and Vasco’s losses | OneFootball

The Campeonato Carioca may be closer to the end than many people imagine. According to journalist Jorge Nicola, a columnist for Rede 98, the end of the state championships is already being seriously considered for 2027 or, at the latest, 2028, if the betting-house landscape in Brazil does not change.

The reason is financial. And Vasco, which counts on Carioca as guaranteed revenue at the start of every season, is among the clubs that would be directly affected.

What the reporting says

According to the columnist, the state championships had already been losing space in the calendar, especially after the increase in the number of dates for the Brasileirão. Now, the Provisional Measure that restricts betting companies could speed up this process.

Today, a large part of the commercial revenue from the state championships comes from betting houses, both through sponsorships and the purchase of competition rights. If that market leaves the country for good, federations and clubs will have to look for new partners, and the trend is for the amounts to be lower.

The warning is not coming only from the press. Flamengo president Luiz Eduardo Baptista has already publicly said that the state championships could lose financial viability if betting companies stop operating in Brazil.

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What is the PM that bans betting companies

The Provisional Measure was signed by President Lula on September 25 and ends the operation, offering, intermediation, and advertising of fixed-odds betting in the country.

The measure also bans sponsorships from betting sites and orders websites and apps to go offline starting October 6.

The PM is already in effect, but it must be approved by the Chamber and the Senate within 120 days to become law.

Carioca depends directly on betting companies

The impact in Rio is direct. The 2026 edition was officially named Cariocão Superbet because of the sponsorship of a betting company.

Without this type of contract, Ferj would lose one of the main sources of money that supported precisely the most celebrated change to the state championship this year: the return of performance-based prize money.

2026 Campeonato Carioca prize money: the amounts

The 2026 edition was launched with the biggest prize pool in the tournament’s history. Adding fixed amounts and bonuses, the champion could earn as much as R$ 27 million. In 2025, the champion did not receive prize money, only the trophy and medals.

Here is how the distribution looked in 2026:

Fixed participation feesFlamengo: R$ 10 millionVasco, Fluminense and Botafogo: R$ 6.6 million eachOther clubs: R$ 2 million each

Performance-based prize moneyTaça Guanabara champion: R$ 1 millionQuarterfinal qualification: R$ 1 million per clubSemifinal qualification: R$ 5 million per clubFinalists: R$ 5.5 million eachBonus for the champion: R$ 5 million

Flamengo won the title, secured with a victory at the Maracanã on March 8, and took home R$ 10 million for the triumph. Fluminense, the runner-up, also received an extra R$ 1 million for the Taça Guanabara.

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How much Vasco earned in the 2026 Carioca

Vasco finished the group stage in 2nd place in Group A, with 11 points. In the semifinals, they were eliminated by Fluminense, 2-1 on aggregate: a 1-0 loss at Nilton Santos and a 1-1 draw at the Maracanã.

Even without reaching the final, the campaign brought in good money. In addition to the fixed fee of R$ 6.6 million, the club secured about R$ 6.5 million in performance-based prize money, according to a survey by SuperVasco. In other words, Vasco made around R$ 13 million from the Carioca in 2026.

The campaign also secured Cruz-Maltino a place in the 2027 Copa do Brasil, another important point: today, the state championship also serves as a gateway to national competitions.

Paulistão pays even more and worries São Paulo

In São Paulo, the concern is even greater because of the size of the fees. Corinthians, Palmeiras, São Paulo and Santos each received R$ 35 million to play in the 2026 Paulistão, more than triple the highest fixed fee in the Carioca.

State championships have already lost space in the calendar

The downsizing of the state championships did not start now. Last year, the CBF reduced the limit of base dates for these competitions from 16 to 11 in the 2026 to 2029 cycle. The goal was to reduce the physical strain on athletes, bring forward the start of the Brasileirão, and reorganize the national calendar.

What is at stake for Vasco

The biggest winner of Carioca titles outside the Flamengo-Fluminense axis for several decades, Vasco has a historic relationship with the state championship: 24 titles, the last of them in 2016.

From a financial standpoint, losing the Carioca would mean giving up revenue that came close to R$ 13 million in 2026, a far from negligible amount for a club undergoing restructuring. On the other hand, the end of the tournament would free up dates at the start of the season, something many coaches have been advocating for years.

For now, nothing has been decided. But if the betting-company landscape does not change, the 2027 Campeonato Carioca could be one of the last, or might not even happen.

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.