Supercomputer issues fresh 2026/27 EFL Championship final table prediction | OneFootball

As we head into the first international break, who tops the pile in Opta's predicted table

The first international break is upon us, and after a hectic opening month in the Championship, teams are getting a much-needed three-week break.

Every second-tier side, barring Portsmouth, has played at least eight games in all competitions already this season. Those who made the EFL Cup third round have played 11, with Saturday/Tuesday games for the last four weeks.

There hasn't been much time to look back and assess until now. With three weeks between fixtures, managers will be able to help bed in some new signings, work on the tactics and look to either kick on after a slow start or maintain a quick one.

It's also a good time to review pre-season predictions and look at how those predictions have evolved. According to Opta's supercomputer, this is how the Championship predicted table looks after eight gameweeks.

24 ? ? Preston North End

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Preston North End have made a habit in recent seasons of starting quickly and then fading away as the campaign went on. So, to begin this year poorly with just four points from eight games is quite a concern.

The Lilywhites became the first side in the division to sack their manager, with Paul Heckingbottom shown the door following the 1-0 home loss against Lincoln City, and despite a promising start under Jason Euell at QPR on Saturday, the 10-man Hoops coming from two-down to salvage a point isn't the bounce back North End were looking for.

Whoever does come in to replace Heckingbottom permanently will have a tough task on their hands. According to Opta, things aren't set to get better at Deepdale anytime soon.

23 ? ? Watford

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Through the first mini-section of the Championship season, Watford currently sit bottom of Opta's expected table. Therefore, it's no surprise to see that the Hornets are being predicted to suffer relegation.

Alessio Dionisi has struggled with injuries throughout the infancy of his time at Vicarage Road, and that's contributed massively to what has been a very poor campaign both per the underlying numbers and in real life.

Indeed, Watford currently sit 20th, with the second-worst xG difference, the third-worst xG and the third-worst xGA.

Amin Nabizada has been a real bright spark, and you get the feeling that the 19-year-old is going to need to pull out all the stops if Watford are to avoid the third tier for the first time since the 1997/98 campaign.

22 ? ? Cardiff City

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Unlike Watford, Cardiff City have been the data darlings of the Championship campaign thus far. Brian Barry-Murphy's high-possession playstyle is working, in theory, but the finishing touch has been lacking massively.

Cardiff have had the most shots on target in the division thus far, the most touches in the opposition's box, and have the fourth-highest expected goals tally, too. Ideally, a side with those stats won't be in the relegation conversation at all.

However, the supercomputer either predicts a continuation of these missed chances, or perhaps even an inability to keep this up. Either way, Bluebirds fans will be hoping that their first win of the season against Charlton Athletic last weekend can kickstart their season, proving Opta wrong.

21 ? ? Derby County

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It's not been a great start to the campaign at all for Derby County, but Opta feel that the side currently occupying the final relegation place will be sat just outside it come May 1st.

John Eustace's side is another that has struggled with injuries during the cramped start to the new campaign, but the performance level is so far away from what Championship fans have come to expect from Eustace's teams.

The Rams boss often excels at raising the level of squads that, on paper, aren't as strong. So far this year, though, it's not working, and they were bottom of the division until their 93rd-minute equaliser on Saturday against Burnley.

Derby did only register one win through 10 games last season, though, and look how that turned out. Those at Pride Park will hope the same happens again this year.

20 ? ? Charlton Athletic

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Charlton are currently sitting ninth in the division at the break, so the supercomputer is predicting a drop of 11 places over the next 38 games, which could easily happen.

The Addicks head into the break with no wins in their last five, scoring just twice in that run and handing Cardiff their first win of the season in the final game before this international break.

Nathan Jones' side are, once again, defying their underlying numbers. They aren't creating much, but they're difficult to break down, and when they've taken a lead, they haven't dropped points.

Ultimately, it's evident why they're down in 20th, but if that proves to be the case come May, a lot of Charlton fans will be content with remaining in the second tier once again.

19 ? ? Bolton Wanderers

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Bolton Wanderers are one of the few sides in the Championship where the extended break comes at the wrong time, as Steven Schumacher's side have bounced back from four straight defeats with consecutive wins.

The Trotters have faced tough opposition thus far, too, and put in some good performances. They took the game to West Ham United and scored twice, and did the same at Norwich on Sunday, scoring four.

Defensively, there's a lot to be desired, and Bolton may need to rely on Gavin Bazunu putting in some more performances akin to the one against Cardiff a little over a week ago, but going forward, they should have enough.

Any League One play-off winner should be happy with survival, and 19th in their first season back in seven years would be a positive.

18 ? ? Burnley

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Burnley are one of two sides in all three EFL leagues yet to win a game heading into the international break, picking up four draws and losing four times in their opening eight games.

Performances have been shockingly bad under Nicky Hayen, and while they did concede in the 93rd minute on Saturday against Derby, denying them a first win, they arguably didn't deserve to take all three points either, registering just six shots all game at home.

Adding to that, they've already conceded more through eight games this year than they did in the entirety of the 2024/25 campaign under Scott Parker — although that probably says more about that side than this one.

We've seen relegated Premier League sides fall immediately through the trapdoor in the last two seasons. Opta doesn't think that will happen at Turf Moor, but an 18th-placed finish would be massively disappointing.

17 ? ? Blackburn Rovers

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If you were to tell any Blackburn Rovers fan back in May that they'd be finishing above their East Lancashire rivals one year on, they wouldn't be forgiven for feeling they'd been promoted back to the Premier League. That's not the case, but alas, a good bit of bragging rights.

Blackburn have surprised quite a few people so far this season. Tony Mowbray is still showing he's a capable head coach at this level, as the investment in the squad and the current injury record at Ewood Park would spell relegation in most cases.

Instead, Rovers have gone at the opposition, taken their chances when presented to them and have picked up points against some big hitters in the division, beating the likes of Middlesbrough and Millwall.

Given the circumstances, finishing 17th at the end of the campaign would be a successful return for Tony Mowbray.

16

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head into the international break sitting 19th, but with a game in hand that, if they won, they'd be in the top half.

That outlines how tight the division is at this early break, but also shows that it's not completely out of the question for Pompey to end the season in 16th. John Mousinho's side have been in the middle of the pack in the majority of the key stats, and per the expected tables, sit in 14th.

It's not glamorous, but with the expectation this season to become a more established Championship outfit and finish clear of the scrapping relegation pack, this will be seen as a success at Fratton Park.

15 ? ? Stoke City

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Opta had Stoke City as the side most likely to be relegated this season before a ball was kicked, at 31.1%. Three games in, that prediction looked nailed on, with the Potters sitting rock bottom with three defeats.

But credit to Mark Robins, with his back against the wall and some calling for his head, he's led Stoke to four wins and a draw from five games heading into the break, meaning they're in the play-offs for the next few weeks.

They aren't creating too much in terms of chances going forward, but they're taking them at a very efficient rate, while also being very difficult to break down over this impressive run, too.

The supercomputer doesn't feel they'll maintain play-off form, but the conversation about them going down seems to have quieted down significantly.