What will decide the Eastern Conference Semifinals? | OneFootball

By Matthew Doyle

And now, after our customary November international break, we return to the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs with a look at the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

In we go:

FC Cincinnati (2) vs. Inter Miami CF (3)

The big story: Which No. 10 can drag his team to the promised land?

Lionel Messi has 10 goals and eight assists in his last six games, and Inter Miami will need every ounce of that galaxy-bending genius when they roll into Cincinnati for the Eastern Conference Semifinals. This is the part of the season where stars either impose their will or get swallowed by Cincy’s box dominance; can Messi rise above that? Can Miami, as a collective?

The Herons’ defensive structure has gotten better (though it still wobbles), and the rotations have been crisper (though they still drift). They have become a more complete team in attack, though one that too often still defaults to “hope Messi solves it.”

Honestly, that might be enough. When the margins tighten and the game becomes a series of high-leverage moments, there’s no one you’d rather have dictating the script than Messi.

Though you could also make a case for Evander! I know Brenner’s the one who was the hero of their Hell is Real win over Columbus, and Kévin Denkey’s certainly had his moments throughout the year… but this is Evander’s team, right? The Brazilian No. 10 is capable of moments few others in this league can match, which is why he’s been in the Landon Donovan MLS MVP race two years running. He’s that kind of talent.

But “moments” is the right word for describing both him and Cincy as a whole. They rarely dominate games from stem to stern, instead leaving it at the feet of their match-winners both in attack (the three guys I mentioned) and their pretty remarkable ability to scramble in defense.

Cincinnati’s tactical plan

What we’ve seen most from the Garys this year, and what I’m sure we’ll see from them in this one, is Evander working underneath a central pairing. The real questions will come from what’s happening behind that trio:

If the answer to both of those is “yes” – well, if the answer to No. 1 is “yes,” and to the first part of No. 2 is “yes,” which makes the answer to the second part of No. 2 “no” – then this team absolutely cooks. But injuries and, frankly, some indiscipline from the front three have meant those types of performances have been few and far between. As I wrote above, it’s been much more of a “win on the margins in the big moments” type of season than a “dominate the game and comfortably put it away” type of season.

The front three's indiscipline, by the way, mostly reveals itself on the defensive side of the ball. They’re not a great pressing team (except for the times when they’re suddenly in the mood, and then they can be a devastating pressing team), and they’re mostly uninterested in closing down passing lanes. That means the midfield and defense have to scramble behind them to an unusual degree for a 65-point team.

To be clear, they're excellent at it – literally one of the best scrambling defensive sides I can remember in this league. But there’s a difference between scrambling against the likes of Taha Habroune and Hugo Picard vs. scrambling against the likes of Messi, Luis Suárez et al.

Miami’s tactical plan

A 5-3 loss to Chicago back at the start of October was the come-to-Jesus moment head coach Javier Mascherano needed to make one big personnel change and a couple of tactical tweaks.

The personnel change was simple: Óscar Ustari played himself out of the starting job in goal, with Rocco Ríos Novo now owning that spot. Ríos Novo has been very good in the subsequent six games, during which Miami have gone 5W-1L-0D with 21 goals scored and just six allowed.

That’s not a typo. Now, I will grant you that four of those six games were against Nashville, so it’s maybe not the most representative sample in the world. But Nashville’s really freaking good – they have a US Open Cup trophy to show for it this year, remember – and the Herons beat them in three out of the four meetings.

The slight tactical tweak was moving Messi more centrally and actually playing more in the central channel than they had been. This is the network passing graphic from their Game 1 win over the ‘Yotes:

Yes, Messi (No. 10… you knew that) is actually ahead of Suárez (No. 9) and Tadeo Allende (No. 21). But sometimes pass maps can lie: he really is actually playing as an attacking midfielder here, and not as a false 9, while Suárez and Allende are doing most of their work off the ball, stretching the field both vertically and horizontally.

Pair that with Rodrigo De Paul finally settling in next to Sergio Busquets in central midfield, plus Jordi Alba being much more conservative on the overlap in the second half of the season, and you’re suddenly looking at a team that opens itself up with reckless, unbalanced attacking forays or bad giveaways much less often than they had up until six weeks ago.

The whole goal is to create as rock-solid a platform as possible while giving Messi a chance to go win the game.

And it’s working. Obviously, there’s the gaudy goal differential from the past half-dozen games, but there’s also the fact that Miami have held opponents to under 1.00 expected goals in three of those six outings.

They're not as vulnerable as they once were.

Projected XI: Cincinnati

It’ll be the 3-4-1-2, though there are injury-related questions on the backline, at wingback and in central midfield (sounds like Ender Echenique hurt his knee on international duty).

Pat Noonan’s got some big choices to make, and I’m a big "audentes fortuna iuvat" guy. I hope he goes on the attack.

Projected XI: Miami

I know there’s been some talk about whether or not Suárez should start after he got suspended for the Game 3 decider against Nashville, and then Miami went out and played maybe their best game of the season with Mateo Silvetti in his place.

But I don’t think there’s any chance he’s not in the XI from the opening whistle. And I don’t think there’ll be any other surprises in the XI.

Philadelphia Union (1) vs. New York City FC (5)

The big story: Can Philly buck the trend and prove their game model can win in the playoffs?

We have long known the regular-season value of the Energy Drink Soccer game model – the all-running, all-pressing, smash-bang bumper cars brand of soccer that the Union have long subscribed to, and have executed with a renewed ferocity and commitment this year under head coach Bradley Carnell. That got them the 2025 Supporters’ Shield, just the club’s second-ever major trophy.

We have also long seen that game model's value diminishes in Cup play (most especially in the playoffs), when a few things happen:

You could see all this over the course of Philly’s season: they smashed the bottom of the table, but were mostly ordinary against other playoff teams. They made it to the US Open Cup semifinals, but then got drilled by a Nashville team that had the time and resources to prepare for them.

The margins are thinner at this time of year, in these types of games.

Can Philadelphia Union avoid upset vs. NYCFC?

Of course, that may not be the case against this version of NYCFC. I didn’t write it up above because it’s almost too sad to ponder, but basically the big question for them is “how can they even compete given all the injuries and absences?”

Keaton Parks, their best central midfielder, has long been sidelined. Andrés Perea – a very different kind of player – has stepped in for him and had been playing well, then suffered a gruesome injury against Charlotte in NYCFC’s clincher two weeks ago. We won’t be seeing either of those guys in this game.

We also won’t be seeing hard-man d-mid Aiden O’Neill, who picked up an utterly needless yellow card just minutes before Perea’s injury, and will miss this game due to suspension for three yellows in three games (insert “when keeping it real goes wrong” reference here).

That means they’re down to their fourth and fifth-choice deep-lying midfielders, and by that I mean they’ll most likely move Justin Haak out of central defense up to d-mid, and then either insert young Jonathan Shore (who’s barely played over the past few months) or drop veteran Maxi Moralez deeper as a No. 8, then put Julián Fernández in as a No. 10.

But wait, there’s more! Star No. 9 Alonso Martínez reportedly tore his ACL while on international duty with Costa Rica, which obviously means he’s gone. That’s just a brutally bad beat, and means Pascal Jansen’s either got to play star winger Nico Fernández Mercau as a false 9, or trust 17-year-old homegrown Seymour Reid in a monstrously big moment.

Philadelphia's tactical plan

They will press the hell out of NYCFC no matter what. I’d imagine that Carnell will install some special triggers depending on what shape the visitors come out in – there's a non-zero chance it’ll be a 5-4-1 instead of a 4-2-3-1 – but either way the Union will be absolutely swarming a team that has to remake its spine on the fly.

Now, I expect most of this game to play out with Philly on the front foot, pinning NYCFC deep. Causing final-third turnovers and transitioning immediately into attack mode is always the name of the game.

But that’s not how Philly beat Chicago in Round One. Philly beat Chicago by capitalizing on the Fire’s confidence in coming upfield, then their subsequent carelessness with the ball:

Leave space behind, and this is what happens in Chester.

Commit to your challenges. Press and counter. And, of course, set pieces.

It’s a Shield-winning strategy.

New York City's tactical plan

My hunch is it’ll be a low-block 4-2-3-1 with Fernández starting up top as a false 9. That was the look Jansen preferred later in the year when Martínez was nursing an injury, and while it’s not perfect, it does have some advantages.

Charlotte did a particularly good job of punishing the Union in this way on Decision Day:

Now, Philly will be operating at a different frequency in this one – at home, in an elimination game – than they were on Decision Day with the Shield already wrapped up. NYCFC will not be facing a team that is having trouble finding their motivation.

But Kai Wagner’s going to push forward on the overlap, and there will be space behind him. And if you’re punching up, it is your right to sit back, absorb, and then try to hit into that space.

Projected XI: Philadelphia

Carnell went ultra-defensive in Game 2 vs. the Fire, starting right back Frankie Westfield at right midfield in their usual 4-2-2-2. It obviously worked – they’re here, right? And I don’t think that’s nothing.

But there’s no reason to go so defensive against a team that’s as badly wounded as these Pigeons. This is the type of side Philly’s battered all year long, so I’m assuming Carnell will stick to his guns.

Projected XI: New York City

I’ve already done most of the reveal above, but bear in mind that we’re into uncharted waters here with these injuries. We could see a 5-4-1, we could see Kevin O’Toole as a hybrid left back/d-mid, we could see… something we’ve never seen before. This team’s reached “let’s throw something at the wall and see what sticks” hours.

But for the sake of my sanity, I’m going with a 4-2-3-1. Caveat emptor.