Who can stop Harry Kane winning the Ballon d'Or? | OneFootball

England captain is the favourite to win his first Ballon d’Or, but the race remains wide open

Harry Kane is among the favourites to lift the 2026 Ballon d’Or when the annual ceremony to crown the world’s best footballer takes place in London next month.

Kane is one of three English nominees for the award, alongside Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, while 39-year-old Lionel Messi is looking to win his ninth Ballon d’Or of an illustrious career.

Were Kane to win the Ballon d’Or, he would become the first Englishman to do so since Michael Owen in 2001 and just the fifth Englishman in history to lift the historic award.

Is Harry Kane the favourite?

This year, more than any other, feels like Kane’s best opportunity to celebrate his personal contribution to a career marked by his selflessness.

After scoring a mammoth 61 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich while leading England to a World Cup semi-final, few nominees come close to matching Kane’s impact for club and country last season.

In days gone by, Kane’s numbers would have been dwarfed by the frankly implausible outputs of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. But that era of goalscoring is hard to define and harder yet to replicate.

What Kane did last season was remarkable. He is not simply a striker of unerring accuracy and unwavering focus, but a creator, a leader and a role model.

Blurring the definition of a modern-day striker, Kane found it just as easy to drop deep and orchestrate a pulsating first-leg fightback against Paris Saint-Germain last term as he did to power England past DR Congo with sharp penalty-box instincts and sheer lion-hearted intuition.

Kane was on a mission last season, and the fact that Bayern and England fell short in their ambitions should not count against him. Even though the altruistic Kane would probably feel differently, given his innate ability to shift the focus away from himself and back to the team.

Ironically and perhaps a touch tragically, what makes Kane such a compelling nominee is also the one thing that may cause him to miss out. Quintessentially British, Kane has the hallmarks of a self-deprecating second place.

Not one for self-congratulatory statements, Kane will no doubt shy away from the sort of grubby salesmanship that tends to take place in the lead-up to the Ballon d’Or, stepping aside as others talk up their chances.

Others before him, such as World Cup winner and fellow 2026 nominee Rodri, have won on a campaign where PR and politics have taken a backseat.

In an open field such as this year’s 30-man shortlist, though, nominees will be appealing to emotion as much as categorical truths. The question is, can Kane’s quality cut through the noise?

Lamine Yamal

AFP/Getty

Harry Kane’s biggest rivals

Among the other nominees, Kylian Mbappe, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Messi are the most likely to keep pace with Kane.

Mbappe, who has never finished inside the top three of the Ballon d’Or voting, was able to rise above a tumultuous year at Real Madrid to finish with 42 goals in all competitions, including 15 in 11 appearances in the Champions League.

The 27-year-old has admitted that this year would be a good year to win the Ballon d’Or and is clearly feeling the weight of history - Real Madrid have the joint most Ballon d’Or wins (12) of all time.

"I think when you play for Real Madrid, the best club in the world, people associate you with this award," he said.

Yamal is widely considered the best young player on the planet right now and in any given year, he is likely to find himself among the favourites for the Ballon d’Or.

Lionel Messi has won eight Ballons d’Or

AFP via Getty Images

An injury-disrupted campaign, though, meant he struggled to contribute as much as he would have liked to Barcelona’s La Liga title win or Spain’s first World Cup victory since 2010.

When Yamal played, he produced world-class moments with effortless youth and vigour, contributing 16 goals and 12 assists in 28 league appearances.

The Ballon d’Or, though, is as much about consistency as it is about quality, especially when you are competing with the output of Kane and Mbappe.

Messi and Rodri have both lifted the Ballon d’Or before, and both played instrumental roles, respectively, in helping Argentina and Spain reach the World Cup final.

Rodri was named man of the match in the final - won in extra time by fellow nominee Ferran Torres - capping an impressive spell in which he rehabilitated his reputation after a difficult period with injuries before sealing a move to Barcelona.

Reigning champion Ousmane Dembele is also in the running after helping PSG secure back-to-back Champions League titles, while also enjoying a prolific World Cup.

Declan Rice and Gabriel are up for the award

Getty

Who makes the cut from the Premier League?

Premier League champions Arsenal unsurprisingly dominate the nominees from England’s top flight, with Rice, Gabriel and William Saliba all included.

Outside of the Arsenal trio, though, Premier League representation is slim, with Manchester City forward Erling Haaland and Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes the only other nominees.

David Raya has been nominated for men’s goalkeeper of the year, while Mikel Arteta and Unai Emery are up for coach of the year.

Why is the Ballon d’Or in London?

On the 70th anniversary of the award’s inception, the Ballon d’Or will return to the very place where the first-ever winner, Sir Stanley Matthews, was crowned in 1956.

The Theatre du Chatelet in Paris has hosted the Ballon d’Or since 2019, but will temporarily relinquish its hosting duties to the London Palladium Theatre on Monday, October 26.

A far cry from the low-key affair that saw Sir Stanley Matthews pick up the inaugural Ballon d’Or at Blackpool Town Hall, the award will return to its spiritual home to mark the anniversary.