Will São Paulo go down? University gauges Tricolor's drop risk | OneFootball

The 1-0 defeat to bottom-placed Chapecoense last Sunday (23) did not knock São Paulo down in the Brasileirão standings, but it left the team even closer to the relegation zone, since Mirassol, who sit just above the bottom four, cut the gap to Tricolor to only three points after drawing their match.

Tricolor currently sit 13th in the table, with 27 points. Mirassol, in 17th, have 24 — in fact, they were the last team São Paulo managed to beat in the Brasileirão, way back on April 25, in the 13th round of the national competition.

So it is inevitable to say: Dorival Júnior’s team is fighting against relegation. The traditional Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) updated the clubs’ probabilities in the 2026 Brasileirão.

And São Paulo appear with a 17.3% chance of being relegated to Série B, according to UFMG’s numbers. Practically relegated, Chapecoense avoided an early drop by beating Tricolor, but still show a 98% probability, topping the list. See the full table at the end of the article.

Chances of Sul-Americana and Libertadores

Despite the huge crisis they are going through in the league, where they have not won in ten rounds, São Paulo still have a chance of reaching the South American competitions, of course.

According to the University, Tricolor still have a 25.7% probability of qualifying once again for the Copa Sudamericana, but only a 0.99% chance of securing a place in the 2027 Copa Libertadores.

São Paulo still have a slim 0.001% chance of lifting the Brazilian championship trophy at the end of the season, UFMG pointed out.

To try to reduce their probability of going down, the Morumbi side host Bragantino this Saturday (29) at 8:00 p.m. (Brasília time) in the 25th round of the Brasileirão.

Image: Federal University of Minas Gerais

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.