Ballon d’Or 2026 odds: Kylian Mbappe new favourite ahead of Harry Kane & Lionel Messi | OneFootball

The battle for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has been taken up a notch during the on-going 2026 World Cup, which has so far seen some sparkling performances from key contenders to win the top individual prize in football.

Since 2022, the Ballon d’Or has been based on seasonal performance rather than the calendar year, and history tells us that displays at the World Cup can prove pivotal.

Last year we witnessed Ousmane Dembele join icons like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, and Zinedine Zidane in lifting the prestigious prize – but who currently finds themselves in contention to win the 2026 gong?

Check out the latest Ballon d’Or odds below:

Who are the favourites for the 2026 Ballon d’Or?

Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe’s odds of winning his first-ever Ballon d’Or drifted out to 16/1 after Real Madrid ended the season without a trophy.

However, the French superstar still enjoyed a superb individual campaign; winning the Champions League and La Liga Golden Boot awards. He has since carried that form into the summer, where he’s currently aiming to lead France to a second World Cup triumph in the last eight eight years.

Mbappe, who is the new Ballon d’Or favourite at 15/8 with bet365, is currently level with Lionel Messi in the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot race and sits just one goal behind the Argentine in the tournament’s all-time scoring charts, which could well change when Les Bleus face Spain in the semi-finals.

Harry Kane

Harry Kane remains a key contender (9/4 with bet365) to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or as he looks to become the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001 (back when only European players won the award).

Kane, who has formed an incredible triumvirate with Michael Olise and Luis Diaz at Bayern Munich, scored 61 goals in 51 games in 2025-26, en route to winning a third straight Bundesliga Golden Boot (36 goals), the Bundesliga title, and the DFB-Pokal – scoring a hat-trick in the final win against Stuttgart.

Kane’s dreams of Champions League glory were ended by PSG in the semi-finals, but he’s scored six goals en route to leading England through to the World Cup semi-finals, with holders Argentina up next.

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi was priced at 50/1 to win the Ballon d’Or when the 2026 World Cup got underway, but his stunning performances for Argentina have dramatically changed the picture.

The 39-year-old has scored eight goals in six matches so far, inspiring the defending champions to another World Cup semi-final, and shrunk his Ballon d’Or odds to 6/1.

Despite the achievements of every other player in the mix, if Messi wins the World Cup for a second time in four years then it’s difficult to see any other outcome than the Argentine winning a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or.

Ousmane Dembele

2025 Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele was out at 20/1 in late April to become the first back-to-back winner since Lionel Messi in 2021.

However, the Frenchman is now right in the mix at 6/1 following a series of superb displays in the Champions League, where he scored in the final to help PSG become only the second club in the Champions League era to successfully defend the trophy – and his subsequent displays in the 2026 World Cup.

After a difficult start to the season which was plagued by injury, the Ballon d’Or holder and recent winner of the Ligue 1 Player of the Season award has peaked at just the right time, scoring five goals so far at the tournament, including a hat-trick against Iraq.

Michael Olise

Michael Olise is simply a joy to watch, elevating his game to new heights since his 2024 switch from Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich, where he’s accumulated a whopping 53 goal involvements in 52 games across three different competitions in 2025-26.

The Frenchman’s panache and creativity has been off the charts, with his return of 31 assists saw him finish just one shy of Lionel Messi’s single-season record in Europe’s top five leagues record of 32.

Olise helped Bayern win a double, and now harbours ambitions of World Cup success with France this summer, where he’as accumulated five assists so far – just one shy of Pele’s single tournament record of six.

Who else is in the mix?

Jude Bellingham has burst into the mix at 8/1 – cut from 100/1 in early July – following a number of match-winning displays for England at the World Cup, with his return of six goals to date seeing him win four Player of the Match awards en route to the semi-finals.

Lamine Yamal (10/1) is widely tipped as a future multiple Ballon d’Or winner and 2026 could be the year he scoops his maiden accolade. In 2025-26 alone, he contributed 42 goals and assists in 45 games for Barcelona. Yamal added another league title and Supercopa de Espana trophy to his cabinet and while he’s yet to truly sparkle at the World Cup, his Spain side remain right in the mix to win the tournament.

Declan Rice was previously a 5/1 major contender in June, but while his odds have been lengthened quite significantly to 66/1, he is well worth keeping an eye on given England’s surge to the semi-finals. The midfielder was a central cog in helping Arsenal win a first Premier League title in 22 years, while he also reached two finals in the Carabao Cup and Champions League.