Mark O'Haire's Premier League Notebook: Stalemate stands-out in Super Sunday blockbuster | OneFootball

English Premier League

The draw is an appealling outsider at Anfield on Sunday

Mark O'Haire's latest Notebook column makes the case for the draw when Premier League title rivals Liverpool and Arsenal lock horns on Super Sunday...

Don't discount the draw

Few fixtures in the calendar carry the same mix of drama, intensity and narrative as Liverpool versus Arsenal. Two compelling heavyweights steeped in history, two managers defined by their tactical conviction, and two sides expected to feature heavily in this season's title race - Sunday's contest already feels laced with significance.

The latest renewal comes with added intrigue: Liverpool arrive buoyant after a chaotic but victorious trip to Newcastle, where once again attacking verve outshone questionable defensive efforts. Arsenal arrive shorn of key stars, though the Gunners can call upon the Premier League's most resilient rearguard. It's a heady mix.

The margins are fine, the stakes are high, and the setting promises fireworks. But an early-season meeting between two of the leading lights in the outright betting may struggle to live up to the hype with both sides desperate to avoid a damaging defeat.

In fact, if we look at the last five Premier League fixtures played before MD4 between teams that finished the season in the top-three positions, all five have ended all-square and I believe the unfashionable draw 3.60 has to come into our thinking here as the best value option at Anfield.

Liverpool's defensive concerns

Liverpool 2.26 are unbeaten against Arsenal at Anfield since 2012 and remain the strongest home side in the EPL; the Reds have suffered only three league defeats in their last 58 outings, scoring in 54 of those fixtures. However, the hosts have coughed shipped multiple goals in each of their openers, highlighting their defensive flaws.

Conor Bradley or Joe Gomez may start at right-back this weekend whilst Alexis Mac Allister is also hoping to return, giving Arne Slot options in midfield with Ryan Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai vying for places. Big summer signing Florian Wirtz could even be dropped to give the Reds a firmer foundation in the centre of the field.

Arsenal missing key cogs

Arsenal 3.45 head north with selection concerns of their own. Bukayo Saka misses out, Martin Odegaard is doubtful, while Ben White and Kai Havertz are unavailable. Eberechi Eze looks likely to make his Gunners debut with Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard and Noni Madueke also battling it out for starting berths out wide.

Mikel Arteta's men retain the league's most reliable base and that well-drilled defensive structure, alongside a formidable set-piece threat, makes the visitors an extremely tough nut to crack. Arsenal have suffered just nine league defeats in their past 78 and come into this contest unbeaten in 22 EPL dates with the traditional Big Six.

Strong trends for a stalemate

Four of the past five Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Arsenal have ended level, including each of the last three at Anfield. Across a larger sample, five of the previous 11 league match-ups on Merseyside finished in parity. And if we look back at 2024/25, the Gunners drew five of their seven trips to top-eight rivals.

The market can also be instructive - the previous 10 occasions where Arsenal have been priced up at evens or larger away from home in the Premier League, seven of those showdowns ended all-square and that again suggests the current price on the draw underestimates the probability of the points being shared again.

Do Liverpool have the defensive control to secure maximum points? Can Arsenal end a 13-year wait for a success at Anfield without Bukayo Saka? At the available 3.60 odds, siding with stalemate makes the most sense on Sunday with neither side wishing to fall behind in the title race at this early stage.

Dutch the correct score market

Punters looking for a meatier option may wish to consider the 1-1 and 2-2 Correct Scores at 7.60 and 14.00. Twelve of Liverpool's most recent 14 Premier League draws have arrived by one of those two correct scores with Arsenal also delivering the 1-1 or 2-2 in 12 of their previous 14 top-flight stalemates going back to August 2024.

3.60.

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