Prediction: Atletico Madrid aren't bluffing and will now push Julian Alvarez towards Arsenal transfer | OneFootball

Atletico Madrid have once again reiterated that they aren’t selling Julian Alvarez to Barcelona in a statement this afternoon.

At this point, it’s surely looking good for Arsenal, even if there is admittedly work to be done to convince Alvarez to move to the Emirates Stadium.

It is accurate that the Argentina international has prioritised Barca, but several industry insiders, speaking on the condition of anonymity, now expect that this saga will end with him becoming an Arsenal player.

To be clear, at the time of writing this is merely a prediction, but it does come from well-connected figures with an understanding of how similar major transfer sagas have played out in the past.

Julian Alvarez won’t stay at Atletico Madrid

Atletico have made their stance clear by ruling out Barcelona, and that’s a message to the player as much as to their La Liga rivals.

“The members of Atlético Madrid’s Board of Directors have unanimously expressed their full support for the club’s decision not to negotiate the transfer of Julián Alvarez to FC Barcelona. The members of the Board of Directors are aware that: Atlético Madrid is open to negotiations that are part of the transfer market, but always in an ethical and professional manner and with respect between clubs. We fully support the position previously communicated by the club that FC Barcelona have not met these requirements and, as a result, there have been no negotiations, nor will there be any negotiations with them regarding the transfer of Julián Alvarez,” Atleti said in an official statement today.

Julian Alvarez celebrates a goal for Atletico Madrid against Sevilla (Photo by Fran Santiago/Getty Images)

One source familiar with what goes on behind the scenes in scenarios like this told me: “Atletico aren’t bluffing. They won’t go back on their word. And if I’m in Atletico’s position now I’m actively encouraging Julian Alvarez to accept an offer from Arsenal.”

Multiple sources feel it’s clearly untenable for Alvarez to stay in Madrid, even if the player himself still has to come to the crucial stage of giving up on his dream move to Barcelona.

“He’ll be thinking he can’t have another year of this,” one source said. “With every passing hour that interest from Arsenal looks more and more tempting.”

Has Julian Alvarez actively rejected Arsenal?

It would be fair to say there’s been mixed information on this, with some sources claiming Alvarez would not even pick up the phone to Mikel Arteta.

Others, however, say he’s simply been favouring a move to Barcelona, so it’s not about actively saying ‘no’ to Arsenal.

(Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

The fact that the Gunners still seem to be there lurking in the background suggests they feel they can still win Alvarez over.

It’s understood that the 26-year-old has prioritised staying in Spain for family reasons, more than for anything football-related, and if that’s accurate then there’s no reason for him to reject the opportunity to play under a leading manager like Arteta at a winning project like Arsenal.

Alvarez moving to Arsenal might still feel unlikely at the time of writing, but given everything we know about the situation, it’s still the most likely outcome by the time the transfer deadline passes.