Vasco’s quarter-final hopes and relegation risk in the Carioca | OneFootball

Vasco da Gama squandered a golden opportunity this Monday (2). By drawing 0-0 with Madureira at São Januário, in a bureaucratic performance lacking offensive inspiration, the team led by Fernando Diniz postponed the decision of its future in the 2026 Campeonato Carioca. What could have been a night of relief turned into mathematical tension: the Cruz-Maltino dropped from third to fourth place in Group A and now heads into the last round of the Taça Guanabara with a calculator in hand and the obligation to get a result in the classic.

With 8 points, the Giant closes the G-4 of the group, the qualifying zone for the quarter-finals. The problem is the proximity of the fifth-placed team, Sampaio Corrêa, which has 7 points and remains in the fight. The minimal difference has turned next Sunday's (8) match against the already qualified Botafogo into a true final. If they stumble again, Vasco runs the real risk of being prematurely eliminated from the main phase of the State Championship.

+ Vasco and Madureira draw 0-0 at São Januário

What does Vasco need to qualify?

The math to advance to the quarter-finals without depending on anyone else is simple, but the mission is arduous: win the classic.

Cruz-Maltino needs to beat rival Botafogo or hope for a combination of results – Photo: Thiago Ribeiro/AGIF

The risk of the Relegation Quadrangular and the “help” from the rival

The 2026 Carioca regulations present a dangerous trap. The bottom two teams of each group are not only eliminated but also compete in the Relegation Quadrangular. With a tragic combination of results (Vasco's loss and Sampaio's win), the Cruz-Maltino would finish in 5th place in the group, being forced to play in the tournament to avoid relegation to Série A2.

Ironically, to avoid any drama on Sunday, Vasco fans might have to root for their biggest rival on Saturday. Since Sampaio Corrêa faces Flamengo a day before the Vasco vs. Botafogo classic, a victory for the Rubro-Negro or even a draw (depending on the goal difference) could keep Vasco in the G-4 even before they take the field. An uncomfortable situation, but one that reflects the team's inconsistency at the start of the season.

Diniz might need help from Flamengo – Photo: André Durão / ge

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.